【出版时间及名称】：2010年5月印度地产行业研究报告
        【作者】：瑞士信贷
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：27
        【目录或简介】：
Low inventory: Real estate inventory levels at 7-14 months of sales in
March 2010 are now at a three-year low and have nearly halved from the
peak levels of 18-30 months in 2Q09. New launches have been slow, as
developers have been waiting to exhaust the existing inventory before kickstarting
a new launch cycle. However, the recent pickup in volumes,
consequent improvement in working capital cycle and low inventory levels
should encourage developers to accelerate new launches.
■ Price momentum back: Prices in major centres, such as Mumbai, Gurgaon,
Bangalore and Kolkata, are back to pre-crisis levels while prices in cities
such as Noida, Chennai and Hyderabad are still 20-35% below their 2008
peaks. As we expect acceleration in new launches from developers, we are
not building in large price increases. However, if there is any delay in pick-up
in new launches, we could witness further upward pressure on prices.
■ Top picks – Unitech and IBREL: With inventory levels at a three-year low,
we expect stronger volume growth for developers and improved pricing
power. We like Unitech (23% discount to NAV) and IBREL (34% discount to
NAV) on the back of their strong cash flow generation prospects and
development momentum, respectively. Our top picks are Unitech and IBREL.
■ Target price change: We lower our target price for DLF to Rs320 (from
Rs390 earlier) basing it at par with our NAV. We maintain NEUTRAL rating
on DLF.