【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月香港地产行业研究报告
        【作者】：野村证券
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：70
        【目录或简介】：
Contents
Is the herd always wrong? 3
Part 1: What can go wrong? Home prices to rise another 20% 3
Part 2: Valuations: no expectations in the price 4
Part 3: Lifting PTs by 15%; SHKP, Cheung Kong, Kerry and Sino are our top
picks 4
Part 1: What can go wrong? 6
Risk #1. Policy restraint: Yes, but growing upside risk from desensitisation 6
Risk #2: Any bad news from 1H10F catalysts 8
Risk #3: Interest rate hikes 8
Risk #4: Reversal of fund flows – 11-15-month digestion period 11
Risk #5: What if mainland demand were to disappear? 13
When will we hit resistance? Rents and affordability suggest first hurdle at 20% 14
Part 2: Valuations: no expectations in the price 16
P/BV at 1.25x, right in line with long-run average 16
Discounts to NAV at 23% — not much baked into the price 18
Latest company views
Cheung Kong (Holdings) 20
Henderson Land 26
Sun Hung Kai Properties 32
New World Development 38
Sino Land 44
Hang Lung Properties 50
Kerry Properties 55
Wharf Holdings 60
Appendix 65