【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月英国地产行业研究报告
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：36
        【目录或简介】：
Bank property debt maturities and
replacement with equity finance set to
steer property into a double-dip
correction
􀀗 Short-term yield compression to give
way to our forecast average 10% fall in
portfolio values in 2010
􀀗 Target prices unchanged, projecting
average 33% negative potential return.
Reiterate Underweight (V) ratings on all
nine stocks under coverage
Funding requirements at record 23% of
investable stock
An estimated GBP155bn of bank debt and GBP16bn of
CMBS matures between 2009 and 2013 with GBP35bn
maturing in 2010 against our estimate that there is
approximately GBP20bn maximum absorption capacity. We
calculate that GBP132bn (or 22.5% of investable stock) of
outstanding bank and CMBS debt is in excess of a long-term
sustainable 65% LTV level (of which GBP47bn is in negative
equity) with c85% of commercial property loans made since
2004 in breach of covenant.
We believe the bank debt maturity bottleneck will require
replacement by more expensive equity as lenders reduce
exposure to the sector ahead of stale income growth
potential in a deflationary economy. We expect the resulting
shortage of funding available to property to lead to higher
long-term borrowing costs and therefore higher required
portfolio income returns than are being priced in by UK
REITs share prices. We believe high vacancy rates, higher
business rates and weak prospective occupier demand should
lead rents to fall further in most sub-markets, which we
forecast at 12% for UK REITs.
Shares grossly overvalued
UK REIT share prices are pricing in a weighted average 9%
rise in prices compared to our forecast 9-16% falls in 2010.
REITs’ implied average 5.9% initial yields are below the allin
cost of new debt at c6%. We maintain our Underweight
(V) ratings on all the stocks in our coverage universe with
our target prices implying an average potential negative
return of 33%. We continue to be less negative on British
Land’s long leases, Shaftesbury’s defensive locations and
SEGRO’s higher income yield against Liberty International
and late-in-the-cycle Derwent London, which have the
largest negative potential total returns.