【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月美国地产行业研究报告
        【作者】：瑞士信贷
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：60
        【目录或简介】：
Modest Improvement in March, as Buyers
Focus on Tax Credit
■
Buyers act to take advantage of the tax credit before it expires, but
remain worried about employment. Our Monthly Survey of Real Estate
Agents indicated slightly better traffic in March, with buyers motivated by the
tax credit, which is set to expire on April 30th. Themes seen in responses
from agents across the country were that a) buyers remain hesitant due to
employment concerns, b) the buyers who were active were active were
motivated by the tax credit, and c) that most of the demand occurred at the
low-end of the market.
■
Traffic improves slightly in March, prices close to stabilization. Our
traffic index increased to 43.1 in March, up from 41.4 in February. We expect
to see another increase in April, as buyers will aim to benefit from the
expiring tax credit. However, we were somewhat surprised that increase in
traffic was so slight, especially given improvement in Washington and
Baltimore, areas hit by the snow in February. One noticeable area of
improvement was in terms of pricing. Our price index reached 40.0 in March
– up from 35.7 in February. The 40.0 reading in March still indicated some
decline in prices (readings below 50 indicate declines), but it was
nonetheless the highest level for our price index (indicating sequential
pricing trends) since Summer 2006 and indicated that prices were nearly
stable during the month.
■
Time to sell index looking better for pricing trends. Our time to sell
index, which takes into account changes in both traffic and inventory, nearly
reached 50 in March, registering 45.9 and signaling that the time needed to
sell a home was largely unchanged from the prior month, a positive
indication for prices.
■
Low-end builders likely to see best contract signings in March and
April, reversal in May and June. Agents noted that demand for homes
came primarily from the first-time buyer segment of the market, with
challenges at the high end of the market. This will likely be even more
pronounced in April, as most buyers motivated by the tax credit are firsttime
buyers, a positive for D.R. Horton, KB Home, Meritage, and Ryland.
However, we expect this segment of the market to slow the most
following the expiration of the tax credit.