4.3 In the first nine decades of the twentieth century in baseball’s National League, the percentage of times the starting pitcher pitched a complete game were:

72.7 (1900–1909), 63.4, 50.0, 44.3, 41.6, 32.8, 27.2, 22.5, 13.3 (1980–1989)

(Source: GeorgeWill, Newsweek, April 10, 1989).

a. Treating the number of games as the same in each decade, the linear probability model has ML fit = 0.7578 − 0.0694x, where x = decade (x = 1, 2, . . . , 9). Interpret −0.0694.

b. Substituting x = 12, predict the percentage of complete games for 2010– 2019. Is this prediction plausible? Why?

c. The logistic regression ML fit is = exp(1.148 − 0.315x)/[1 +exp(1.148 − 0.315x)]. Obtain
for x = 12. Is this more plausible than the prediction in (b)?