中美关系


China may emerge as the world’s largest economy by 2025 and it may be
twice the size of the US by 2050. However, China faces various actual
and potential challenges: increasing natural resource dependence and
rising geo-political competition with “status quo” powers, weakening
political legitimacy of current governance structures, environmental
degradation, political and economic limits to the current investment- and
export-oriented growth strategy.
— China’s increasing economic and financial weight, while very
significantly enhancing its role in international affairs, will not translate
into greater leverage vis-à-vis Washington for now.
— The Sino-US economic-financial relationship is best described as one of
“asymmetric interdependence” skewed in Washington’s favour. Both
sides have an interest in avoiding a broader economic conflict. However,
should push ever come to shove, China would incur far greater
economic and financial costs than the US.
— The balance of economic and financial power will only shift once China
reduces its dependence on the US market (or US dependence on the
Chinese market increases).