What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? What can Catherine the Great’s lovers tell us about probability? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they’re impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them. A rallying cry to ignore the ‘experts’, The Black Swan shows us how to stop trying to predict everything – and take advantage of uncertainty. 作者简介Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to immersing himself in problems of luck, uncertainty, probability, and knowledge. Part literary essayist, part empiricist, part no-nonsense mathematical trader, he is currently the Dean’s Professor in the Sciences of Uncertainty at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst. His last book, the bestseller Fooled by Randomness, has been published in eighteen languages. Taleb lives (mostly) in New York.
编辑推荐Stephen J. Dubner, author of Freakonomics
`Great fun ... brash, stubborn, entertaining, opinionated, curious,

John Kay, Financial Times
`Hugely enjoyable - compelling'

Niall Ferguson, Sunday Telegraph
`Idiosyncratically brilliant'

Larry Elliot, Guardian
`A fascinating study of how we are regularly taken for suckers by the unexpected'

Economist
`A deeply intelligent, provocative book'


John Kay, Financial Times
'Like the conversation of raconteur ... hugely enjoyable - compelling ... Beware the Black Swan' --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

John Cornwell, Sunday Times
'The Black Swan confirms his status as a guru for every would-be Damien Hirst, George Soros and aspirant despot' --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

The Economist
'A deeply intelligent, provocative book ... Taleb succeeds in
bringing sceptical empiricism to the masses' --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

BusinessWeek
'A richly enjoyable read with an important message' --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

Time
'A provocative macro-trend tome in the tradition of The Wisdom of
Crowds and The Tipping Point' --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.