文章摘自wilmott的一个帖子。


原文链接：The Ten Commandments given to the Prophet Nassim on Mount Lebanon
1. What is fragile should break early while it is still small. Nothing should ever become too big to fail. Evolution in economic life helps those with the maximum amount of hidden risks – and hence the most fragile – become the biggest.
小概率事件应该在一开始就考虑到，并且在他造成更大的影响之前处理掉，那些小概率事件是存在的，而且他们的概率比我们认为的要大，说造成的破坏也要大。
2. No socialisation of losses and privatisation of gains. Whatever may need to be bailed out should be nationalised; whatever does not need a bail-out should be free, small and risk-bearing. We have managed to combine the worst of capitalism and socialism. In France in the 1980s, the socialists took over the banks. In the US in the 2000s, the banks took over the government. This is surreal.
关于私有化和公有化的讨论，任何需要最后ZF担保损失的都应该国有化，那些私有化的资本不应该由国家为他们的损失埋单。这个大概是由去年的AIG以及那些投行的事情出来的。我的理解是，凡是非市场化的行业就不应该推行私有化，或者要保证行业的公有属性，这些行业应该指那些铁路，油气，商业银行。而那些以营利为目地的行业的企业应该为他们的损失负责，这里估计指的就是IB和funds们了。事实上这个讨论很广泛，看看这些国家，法国的某些行业共有化程度比号称社会主义的中国更大，我们的社会主义资本化，人家的资本主义社会化。
3. People who were driving a school bus blindfolded (and crashed it) should never be given a new bus. The economics establishment (universities, regulators, central bankers, government officials, various organisations staffed with economists) lost its legitimacy with the failure of the system. It is irresponsible and foolish to put our trust in the ability of such experts to get us out of this mess. Instead, find the smart people whose hands are clean.
那些在市场中不断犯错的人们不应该再继续在市场中，我们不能指望他们能从失误中获得教训，我们需要那些能在这个市场中依旧保持清醒的人们。然而实际上是，这个市场上不存在不犯错的人，而且，我们习惯把这种犯错叫做交学费，人家说街上先要陪上10m才能叫trader的入门，事实上nasslm自己也赔的一塌糊涂。



4. Do not let someone making an “incentive” bonus manage a nuclear plant – or your financial risks. Odds are he would cut every corner on safety to show “profits” while claiming to be “conservative”. Bonuses do not accommodate the hidden risks of blow-ups. It is the asymmetry of the bonus system that got us here. No incentives without disincentives: capitalism is about rewards and punishments, not just rewards.
如果你把你的收益和管理人员的bonus挂钩，你的风险也和他的bonus挂上了。最后你失去的是你的积蓄，他只是丢了工作，而且还拿着你的损失叫做学费。

5. Counter-balance complexity with simplicity. Complexity from globalisation and highly networked economic life needs to be countered by simplicity in financial products. The complex economy is already a form of leverage: the leverage of efficiency. Such systems survive thanks to slack and redundancy; adding debt produces wild and dangerous gyrations and leaves no room for error. Capitalism cannot avoid fads and bubbles: equity bubbles (as in 2000) have proved to be mild; debt bubbles are vicious.
把握好那些复杂金融产品在你的资产组合中的平衡，股票，债券虽然简单，不过他们的简单却能给你带来稳定的收益，那些个MBS CDO CDS ABS 之类的东西从生下来就沾满着鲜血，你的鲜血，也许不是今天，但你肯定过不了后天。他们把东西做的越来越复杂，只是为了遮掩这些东西的血腥味。
6. Do not give children sticks of dynamite, even if they come with a warning . Complex derivatives need to be banned because nobody understands them and few are rational enough to know it. Citizens must be protected from themselves, from bankers selling them “hedging” products, and from gullible regulators who listen to economic theorists.
不要给小孩玩那些充满火药的花炮，即使你已经提醒过着东西有危险。那些被人为复杂化的东西会有一天取走你的命，尤其不要把这些东西交给纯洁的市民们，他们的善良和单纯会使得他们成为市场上那些用心不良人的猎物。这里说的应该是像CIM NLY这样的公司吧，挂着信托的名义，把这些高风险的金融产品的风险转嫁给普通投资者，不过话说回来，为什么市民要投资这些产品，估计也是这些个不良用心的人造成的吧。一句话，街上人华丽光鲜的背后是民众的血汗，不过貌似我也是追求这种光鲜的人之一吧，只是还在路上，还是没有月光的乡村小路，都不知道下一步去那。
7. Only Ponzi schemes should depend on confidence. Governments should never need to “restore confidence”. Cascading rumours are a product of complex systems. Governments cannot stop the rumours. Simply, we need to be in a position to shrug off rumours, be robust in the face of them.
ZF要知道自己做的事情就够了，那些市场的行为都是为了影响ZF的举动，貌似这个中国做的很不错，说不升就不升，说调控就调控，说立房产税就立房产税。
8. Do not give an addict more drugs if he has withdrawal pains. Using leverage to cure the problems of too much leverage is not homeopathy, it is denial. The debt crisis is not a temporary problem, it is a structural one. We need rehab.
债务危机不是一个短暂现象，他是整个结构化的问题，饮鸠止渴是没有用的，我们要的是推倒重建。

9. Citizens should not depend on financial assets or fallible “expert” advice for their retirement. Economic life should be definancialised. We should learn not to use markets as storehouses of value: they do not harbour the certainties that normal citizens require. Citizens should experience anxiety about their own businesses (which they control), not their investments (which they do not control).
整个社会不应该鼓励人们通过投资来致富，唯一的能保值的手段是建立自己的business，投资只是给那些喂不熟的狼们提供血淋淋的新鲜的肉。
10. Make an omelette with the broken eggs. Finally, this crisis cannot be fixed with makeshift repairs, no more than a boat with a rotten hull can be fixed with ad-hoc patches. We need to rebuild the hull with new (stronger) materials; we will have to remake the system before it does so itself. Let us move voluntarily into Capitalism 2.0 by helping what needs to be broken break on its own, converting debt into equity, marginalising the economics and business school establishments, shutting down the “Nobel” in economics, banning leveraged buyouts, putting bankers where they belong, clawing back the bonuses of those who got us here, and teaching people to navigate a world with fewer certainties.
如果蛋破了，我们再怎么补也不能让这个蛋不臭掉。如果整个金融市场的产品已经失去了他们最开始的避免风险的职能，我们应该推倒重来，别再给他们诺贝尔奖去鼓励他们做什么金融创新，禁止那些杠杆交易，让那些商业应该好好干他们应该干的事情，如果一个这样的基础行业把追求利润作为自己的目标，我们上那去寻找社会稳定的基石。
后面的很多看到最后发现我并没与在黑天鹅上看到的，估计是他其他书上的观点吧，作为一个80年代就做这个trader，他看到的应该是要比我们更加深刻，虽然这些观点有些偏激，不过也反映了一群人对现在的金融架构的不满，现在看来，他们只能是螳臂当车的人，不过还是要感谢这些为社会提供更多建议的人，其实这些年给我印象最深的，是这些资本主义国家的行为都还能说的上是为民众考虑，而所谓的社会主义的国家貌似掉进了钱眼里。