经济计量学季刊《Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics》上的一篇文章．

Abstract. Recent theoretical and empirical work has cast doubt on the hypotheses of a linear Phillips curve
and a symmetric quadratic loss function underlying traditional thinking on monetary policy. This paper
studies the one-period optimal monetary policy problem under an asymmetric loss function corresponding to
the “opportunistic approach” to disinflation and a convex Phillips curve. The policy-inaction range and its
properties are derived analytically. Numerical simulations are then used to assess the implications of
asymmetric loss for the distributional properties of the equilibrium levels of inflation and unemployment. For
parameter values relevant to the U.S., it is found that the asymmetric loss function yields an average inflation
rate in excess of the target, and that bias is larger than the standard symmetric loss function. For moderate
policy-maker preferences, the asymmetric loss function also yields a smaller gap between average
unemployment and the natural rate, and higher (lower) variance of inflation (unemployment) compared to
the symmetric benchmark. Calibrating the model to match the observed average unemployment rate requires a
high degree of inflation aversion and small asymmetry.
Keywords. monetary policy, nonlinear Phillips curve, asymmetric loss function

[此贴子已经被作者于2006-4-11 12:48:30编辑过]