想请教两个问题:
1:Johansen协整检验的趋势项和截距项怎么选择?以及截距项是如何选择的,是根据建立VAR时的滞后阶数减1吗?
2:当拒绝了所有的假设后,是否还具有协整关系,好像高铁梅和张晓彤的书说的不太一致?
为了更好的说明我的问题,我把我做的协整检验的结果复制过来,麻烦大虾帮忙解决一下的:
Date: 06/05/10 Time: 11:27
Sample (adjusted): 2001M06 2010M03
Included observations: 106 after adjustments
Trend assumption: Linear deterministic trend
Series: CPI M1 SZ
Lags interval (in first differences): 1 to 4
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)
Hypothesized Trace 0.05
No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**
None * 0.196680 42.60738 29.79707 0.0010
At most 1 * 0.131131 19.39318 15.49471 0.0123
At most 2 * 0.041506 4.493507 3.841466 0.0340
Trace test indicates 3 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level
* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue)
Hypothesized Max-Eigen 0.05
No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**
None * 0.196680 23.21420 21.13162 0.0251
At most 1 * 0.131131 14.89967 14.26460 0.0396
At most 2 * 0.041506 4.493507 3.841466 0.0340
Max-eigenvalue test indicates 3 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level
* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values