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• Economic Change and Political Development in China_Findings from a Public Opinion Survey(JCC2004).pdf

摘要：More than 20 years of economic reforms and opening up to the outside world have produced meaningful social, economic and political transformations in China. Have there been corresponding changes in the political–cultural orientations of the Chinese public? This article examines some changes in orientations, based on the preliminary findings of an opinion survey conducted in China in 2000. The 2000 survey used an adapted form of a questionnaire used in a survey conducted in 1990 by Nathan and Shi. The evidence of the 2000 survey data suggests that the political–cultural orientations of the Chinese public are becoming more liberal and pro-democratic as China’s economy continues to grow, possibly providing the basis for a transition to some form of popular democracy.

虽然问卷设计带有一定的主观性，甚至结论推导中还有逻辑矛盾，但仍具备参考价值。至少比空洞说理的文章更具吸引力。

没有耐心的同学可以直接看结论：

The evidence presented in this article suggests that on the basis of the three elements of political culture examined there are some meaningful differences between the attitudes of people surveyed in Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces in 2000 and those of the 1990 all-China survey. A majority of people in the three areas feel more significantly the impact of national and local governments on their daily lives than a decade ago. Furthermore, many less-educated people and rural residents also increasingly feel the impact of the government on their daily lives. This may suggest that the majority of people now increasingly associate government administration with the quality of their daily lives, and this may even lead to greater political demands on the system.

In relation to the internal efficacy, the public surveyed in the three areas are increasingly aware, confident and interested in public issues. For example, the self-claimed ability to become a good national leader is 35.4 percentage points higher than the self-claimed ability to understand national issues. This abnormal gap between one’s estimation of one’s ability to understand and to act may suggest, on the one hand, people’s loss of confidence in the ruling elite rather than suggesting their leadership ability, and on the other hand, a growing desire among the general public to participate in the political decision-making process. People’s external efficacy, that is the expectation of equal treatment by the government bureaucracy, by contrast, is very low. Even the rural and less-educated people who in the past had more trust in the government now expect a less fair treatment by the government. Thus, the majority of people seem to have lost some of their trust in the government and its ability to meet their needs.

The public’s political tolerance, by contrast, is quite high, with over half of the respondents willing to tolerate different views in the teaching and publishing arenas and over 70% tolerant of public debate (the speaking arena). What is extraordinary is that the majority of the less-educated people (with some primary education) are becoming tolerant of public debate. In relation to the newly rich, the data suggests that they are becoming more aware of the impact of government, more politically assertive and more tolerant than the general public. In conclusion, the 2000 survey data suggests that the ruling elite has failed to maintain support for the values of the existing political system. Indeed, the survey data suggests that more Chinese people are becoming aware of the impact of government on their daily lives, are more politically assertive, as well as more tolerant, supporting the conclusion of the 1990 survey that Chinese culture is likely to mirror the characteristics of other democratic countries. Although the 2000 survey data does not warrant a conclusion that China will embark on a democratic transition, it does provide evidence that the political and cultural orientations of the mass public in the three more economically developed regions, are shifting toward more liberal and pro-democratic values. It may be reasonable therefore, to expect that the people in the less-developed regions may develop liberal and prodemocratic attitudes as more economic development occurs. Within such an environment of mass attitudes shifting towards more liberal and pro-democratic values, the ruling elite may find it increasingly difficult to maintain one-party authoritarian rule, as those who are less privileged under the political system are also becoming more liberal and pro-democratic in their values: • those who are less educated and rural are beginning to feel the impact of the government (see Figures 7 and 8) and may become alienated from the regime; • those who are rural are becoming more politically assertive (see Figure 10); • those who are less educated and rural are beginning to show more tolerant and pro-democratic values (see Figures 13 and 14).