Pindick版微观人大版p448页的有关博弈论的一个案例（马克斯。巴泽曼为MIT的课程设计的一个例子）：
兼并一个公司（原书太长了，我把ppt的英文提纲贴过来）
Acquiring a Company
Scenario:

• Company A: The Acquirer
• Company T: The Target
• A will offer cash for all of T’s shares

The value and viability of T depends on the outcome of a current oil exploration project

if Project failure: T’s value = $0
if Project success: T’s value = $100/share
All outcomes in between equally likely
T’s value will be 50% greater with A’s management
Scenario:

• A must submit the proposal before the exploration outcome is known
• T will not choose to accept or reject until after the outcome is known only to T

Company T will accept any offer that is greater than the per share value of the company under current management
How much should A offer?

答案是A不会出价，因为无论如何A的期望收益都抵不上A的出价。
为什么呢？概率论这方面我学的不好，感觉是个条件概率，具体怎么解释，向各位大虾求教！