【出版时间及名称】：GS-Commodity Watch：Policy concerns driving growth reassessment, but not warranted-100622
      【作者】：GS
      【文件格式】：pdf
      【页数】：32
      【目录或简介】：
Market has revised down demand growth expectations…
Commodity markets are generally rebounding strongly off their lows but
sentiment remains fragile on European and Chinese concerns and potential
signs of slowing positive economic momentum, despite generally healthy
macro data and further improvements in commodity fundamentals. These
concerns have caused the market to revise down expectations for future
growth, and, in turn, discount future commodity supply constraints.
…but commodity fundamentals have held up well and are more
leveraged to growth levels than growth rate
However, we believe that the market is overestimating the impact of
current policy and economic concerns on trend economic growth and
maintain that sentiment is too bearish on both the sovereign debt risks as
well as the effects of macroeconomic momentum slowing. Despite some
macro slowing, absolute growth indicators are still firmly positive, and
increasing commodity demand to levels beyond pre-recession highs are
what matters for rebounding prices, not just sequential growth rates.
Further, implied demand for key commodities has remained at
exceptionally high levels in the emerging markets, developed market
demand has generally surprised to the upside, and inventories have once
again begun to track on a tighter path, particularly for the metals.
We have lowered our 3-month oil and metals price forecasts, but
remain constructive on key commodities
Nevertheless, we believe that the markets will remain fragile until there is
further evidence that sovereign pressures are stabilizing and global trend
economic growth remains intact – both of which we expect. As a result, we
have lowered our 3-month oil and base metals price forecasts, but to levels
still above current prices, and maintain a positive medium-term view of key
commodities, including crude oil, copper, zinc and platinum. We also
believe that gold prices will remain supported over the medium term.