机构： 德意志银行
篇幅：104页
时间：2010.6.14
内容：

Still a soft landing ............................................................................. 4
The big picture: Our view on China...........................................................................................4
Sector profitability/return to cycle average, but valuations down close to crisis level ..............4
Our sector top picks: Anhui Conch and Angang .......................................................................6
Earnings/ratings change................................................................... 8
Cutting earnings on higher costs and lower ASPs ....................................................................8
Lowering our target prices on lower earnings ..........................................................................9
Cement ............................................................................................. 14
Key points ...............................................................................................................................14
Demand growth slowing, so is supply growth .......................................................................14
Steel.................................................................................................. 17
Key points ...............................................................................................................................17
YTD steel prices still better than expected..............................................................................17
High production, high inventory = further steel prices downside ...........................................18
Disappointing 3Q leads to strong 4Q......................................................................................22
Metals............................................................................................... 25
Key points ...............................................................................................................................25
Aluminum: rising cost to support prices .................................................................................25
Copper: FY10 a year of destocking in China............................................................................27
2Q earnings likely disappointing on weak copper prices and high inventory..........................28
Base-case metal-price assumptions........................................................................................28
Global comp sheets......................................................................... 29
Data bank ......................................................................................... 34
Cement ..................................................................................................................................34
Steel.......................................................................................................................................36
Metals....................................................................................................................................40
Anhui Conch Cement ...................................................................... 42
CNBM ............................................................................................... 48
Sinoma.............................................................................................. 54
Angang Steel.................................................................................... 62
Maanshan Iron and Steel ................................................................ 68
China VTM Mining........................................................................... 74
China Molybdenum ......................................................................... 80
Chalco............................................................................................... 86
Jiangxi Copper................................................................................. 94