【出版时间及名称】：Standard & Poor, May 2010
      【作者】：Matthew B. Albrecht, Asset Managers, Investment Banks &Securities Brokers Analyst
      【文件格式】：PDF
      【页数】：42
      【目录或简介】：Current Environment ............................................................................................ 1
Industry Profile ...................................................................................................... 9
Industry Trends ................................................................................................... 10
How the Industry Operates ............................................................................... 22
Key Industry Ratios and Statistics................................................................... 28
How to Analyze an Investment Services Company...................................... 29
Industry References........................................................................................... 35
Comparative Company Analysis ......................................................... Appendix

A mid-recovery report card
As this Survey was being prepared in mid-April 2010, the S&P 500 stock index was trading about 75% higher
than the market low reached in March 2009, but remained about 25% below its peak, which was reached in
October 2007. Credit spreads have continued to narrow, and investment-grade and speculative-grade bond
spreads are now within range of their five-year moving average, according to data from Standard & Poor’s
RatingsDirect, which provides real-time ratings information and credit market research.
Markets fell from late 2007 through September 2008 as the economy weakened and credit conditions
tightened. We believe the fear of a total financial system meltdown following the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy
and the bailouts of financial pillars American International Group Inc. (AIG) and Citigroup Inc., along with
many other financial firms accelerated the market
decline from September 2008 through March 2009.
The coordinated injection by world governments of
trillions of dollars of financial stimulus into the system
allowed markets to step back from the brink, in our
opinion. Since then, we believe the markets rallied
strongly as investors recognized that government
intervention had taken the possibility of a financial
market apocalypse off the table. We think market
gains from this point on will be fueled by fundamental
improvements in the operating results of corporations
and improved confidence by retail and institutional
investors.
In our view, financial firms led the markets into the
recession, and they have been among the first to lead
us out. Spurred by government capital infusions and improved investor confidence, the firms covered in this
Survey are returning to top-line growth and positive earnings momentum ahead of companies in many other
industries.
SIGNS OF A GROWING ECONOMY…
With the fortunes of the investment services firms tied to the economy, we think it’s instructive to look at
the general economic outlook to gain insight into these companies’ prospects.
By most estimates, the recession ended in the third quarter of 2009, when real GDP rose by 2.2%. Growth
accelerated in the fourth quarter, with real GDP rising 5.6%, helped by inventory gains. Standard & Poor’s
economists expect slower, but steady, growth in 2010, with real GDP rising 3.0% in, followed by 2.9%
growth in 2011.Consumers are recovering, but continue to deleverage: household debt continues to fall,
while the savings rate has grown. Government spending will keep fueling the growth, but a growing budget
deficit means higher taxes are forthcoming, which would limit future consumption.
…but job growth is still absent…
The unemployment rate stood at 9.7% as of this writing, down from the peak of 10.2% reached in October
2009. Standard & Poor’s economists believe we could see an increase in unemployment in spring 2010,
with the rate rising above 10% again by June. As of April, they were projecting an unemployment rate of
9.6% for 2010 and 9.2% for 2011. Employment of temporary workers has been on the rise, a typical sign
in the early stages of a recovery as companies see growing sales, but are hesitant to hire full-time workers.
We think employment may get also a small artificial bump from government hiring for the 2010 Census,
with most of that impact felt in the second and third quarters.