【出版时间及名称】：2010年7月15日 中国医疗保健
      【作者】：UBS
      【文件格式】：PDF
      【页数】：12
      【目录或简介】：T akeaways from expert conference call􀂄 Recent policies: thunder storm rather than ice age
Speaking on a UBS conference call, an industry expert active in the healthcare
policy-making process expects the recently announced policies (draft of price
regulation and the consequent anti-commercial bribery) to impose a short-term
negative but modest impact on the industry. Other policies including the final
version of drug price regulation, tax investigation and the release of the new GMP
standard and 2010 Chinese Pharmacopoeia could be negative newsflow in H210.
􀂄 Who are most and least affected?
Although recent policies will not have material impact on the industry, the speaker
believes the impact on specific companies may be significant. OTC drug makers,
drug companies with in-house sales teams, large distributors, and first-to-market
generic makers could be less affected. Manufacturers who outsource the sales
function to agents, small distributors who do sales promotion for manufacturers
and manufacturers whose drugs have high retail to ex-factory price gap could be
most affected.
􀂄 Large public hospitals’ (Level II and III) reform untouched
The ongoing China healthcare reform is still focusing on small hospitals, i.e.
community hospitals and rural hospitals. Without the reform of large hospitals, the
speaker believes the government cannot achieve the goal of removing the drug
profit from hospitals, which is the source of the current high drug price and
kickbacks.
􀂄 Expect rapid industry growth for five to ten years
Despite policy uncertainties, the speaker still expects 20-25% revenue CAGR for
the China healthcare industry in the next five years, driven by the aging population,
economy growth, urbanisation, and the increasing reimbursement ratio.