[外行报告] 德意志银行全球商品运行报告2010年7月9日

出版时间及名称】：2010年7月9日
【作者】：德意志银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：24页
【目录或简介】：


DBLCI Commodity Returns: Commodity index returns continue to struggle.
According to the rules governing the DBLCI-MRE, the overweight exposure to
industrial metals has been closed and the underweight exposure to
agricultural is back to neutral. On our reckoning the index is looking for
energy to the next engine room of performance.
􀂄 Crude Oil: Since the start of 2010, we find that every 50 points on the
S&P500 has been worth around USD4/bbl on the WTI oil price. While the US
equity market may drive prices in the short term, we believe that ample Saudi
spare capacity remains a potent force in oil pricing over the next few years.
􀂄 Refined Products: With the eyes of the world on Africa this weekend for the
World Cup finals, we thought it worth examining the continent’s role in the oil
markets. While most know Africa as a major producer, demand has also been
notable with oil demand expected to grow 2% this year. Given lack of
refining capacity, Africa’s demand must be met with imported product.
􀂄 Natural Gas: US gas storage levels still remain above normal although we
have been revising our end of season peak lower. Hot weather is helping
boost demand, and hurricanes may yet reduce supply.
􀂄 Precious Metals: We believe gold price strength has not been exhausted.
Although new all time nominal highs during June have raised concerns that
the market may be entering a bubble, of the eight indicators we employ we
find that gold prices can still not be considered extreme. This would only start
to occur if gold prices moved above USD1,400/oz, in our view
􀂄 Industrial Metals: We believe that value is beginning to emerge in the
industrial metals complex; including aluminium and zinc. Furthermore we
expect that the downside in copper may be more limited than many expect.
We believe that over the course of the next quarter there may be an inflection
point in performance for this group, with upside into 2011.
􀂄 Agriculture: The strong prices advances in grains and soybeans following last
week’s USDA Acreage report highlights the sensitivity of the sector to supply
side events, in contrast to the sensitivity of demand and specifically the
S&P500 in the oil and industrial metals markets.