看不是很懂，郁闷

之前大多数的分析都是从趋势和支撑阻力的角度来看标普，今天换个角度，从震荡和中轴线的角度来看。

图里可以看到几条明显的中轴线，他们一起形成了一个中轴带。 所以标普在大跌后在轴线附近震荡几天是很正常的现象，后面如果跌破，就有理由逾期加速的下跌。跌破后，下方最近的重要支撑是上次说的那个61.8%的位置，然后就是前期低点。

中轴线不能作为精准的支撑/阻力线，它只能反应一个大概的范围。不过用以观察中期的走势还是不错的，是从另一个角度对市场的理解。

图里的唐奇安通道，上限是50日的最高价格，下限是50日的最低价格，中轴线是两者均值。它反映的是过去一段时间内价格波动的情况。以前提过的capitalessence的技术报告（http://www.capitalessence.com/blog/2010/08/13/mo_cn_100813/）里用的就是这个，它取得是K线实体的最高最低，不过差别不太大。

图里是标普迷你的价格，和标普指数本身价格有贴水，大概比标普低3个点左右。

88# feng-pan
那不用麻烦你再打上中文了。我正在恶补英语中，对于考研我的英语水平太低了。这样正好在这里再进一步练练！

92# feng-pan
我想请教一下你这里这个中轴线啊。
1，你说“图里的唐奇安通道，上限是50日的最高价格，下限是50日的最低价格，中轴线是两者均值。”
那意思是你这个中轴线不是自己用手画的而是使用唐奇安通道时自动生成的吗？
2，中轴线跟中轴线指标(AXES)是同一会事吗？在网上搜索只能搜到中轴线指标（AXES）.
谢谢指导！

大哥，能把那个唐奇安通道的公式编码发上来吗？我在网上找的公式编码作出来的图跟你这区别太大了，他是在小窗口那里出来的，不是在K线图上的，网上极少关于唐奇安通道的。唉，中国果然是世界上最大的局域网。。

94# 江湖小虾米

图里的唐奇安通道是平台自带的指标，我也没有编码，计算公式是这样的

Calculation:
HIGH = Highest(H1, H2, H3, H4, ... Hn)     LOW = Lowest(L1, L2, L3, L4, ... Ln)　

唐奇安的中线有的作图工具有，可以直接画出来，我的没有所以就自己画上去了。(图里只有第三条轴线才是唐奇安通道的中轴线)　　

中轴线不是个技术指标。英文就叫Pivot。用意是有些价格位置在以前形成过明显的支撑／阻力，由于市场的“记忆性”，后来每当市场回到这个价位的时候，越过这个区域就会遭遇一些困难。图形上看就是价格有时围绕它上下振动，并在它附近形成盘整，所以叫做轴线。

麻烦各位了，帮我翻译一下第73楼图里的这2句话。
1,   Shorted the market against the trend
2,   If trading more than 1 lots,would trail stop for some remaining position and look for more profits,as yesterday’s close price turned to be a good resistance EMA10 on 5min chart also good target
不胜感激啊！

1. 反着趋势的方向做空市场。  

当时标普是很强的上涨趋势，而操作是做空，所以这一笔是反趋势操作。

2. 如果交易多于一手合约的话，会留下一些剩余的头寸，采用追踪止损并且期望更多的盈利，因为昨天的收盘价被证明是一个很好的阻力位。 另外，5分钟图上的EMA10均线也可以作为一个很好的目标。

（标普迷你的“一手”合约价值现在大约6千美元（指数价格*5美元），每波动一个tick则盈亏12.5美元，2.5个点差为一个tick）

96# feng-pan
恩，我有点懂了中轴线是什么了，那我在85楼的那个图的，在23.6%与38.2%的黄金分割中间线所画出的那条黄色的线是算是中轴线吗？

99# 江湖小虾米

恩，那个价位可以看作是轴线。  这个东西只是用来观察，所以也不必搞得太过于精确，大致看看就好。

谢谢楼主分享！

之前这个图分析过标普近期的轴线。标普在盘整了几天后，今天指数强劲反弹，轴线再次起到了支撑/阻力的作用。

早晨起来做了一笔，用自己帐户做的，算是赚点外快。  最近对于点位强弱，还有趋势是否成立的判断有了比较大的进步，有人指点就是不一样啊。呵呵。。。。

这几天一直在想，权证同样是日内交易，与期货不同的是不可以做空（是否可以用融券做空还没找到详细的说明，先假设不可以做空）。从7月5日以来权证的换手率平均在100%以上，交易活动算是极度活跃了。这样权证和期货的差别就一点做空方面了，那么支撑和阻挡，百分比回撤能不能在权证日内交易上有很好应用呢？由于我在支撑和阻挡，回撤方面看的不准，模拟了几次不理想。所以想请教下是否可行呢？多谢{:3_48:}

105# mambaa

你把做过的交易贴个图上来吧，看图好分析一点。   

没做过权证，但如果它的支撑/阻力不是很精准的话，可能有几个原因。

虽然换手率很高，但成交量不大（或者说整个权证市场不大）。这样的话由于参与的资金量到不了博弈的程度，部分资金就很容易操纵市场，而“很容易”就通常意味着“一定会”。  我之所以选择交易标普迷你合约，就是因为它是所有股指期货合约里面最受欢迎的，日均交易合约数在一到两百万之间，全世界人民都在做，这样就相对不容易被操纵了。  而且，由于交易的资金众多，并且做外汇，债券，黄金，原油的都会参考标普的走势，所以它的支撑/阻力可以达到非常的精准。 这个优越性是权证的小市场不能比的。

精准的点位需要大量的职业技术派交易者，和程序交易的参与。这个我觉得权证市场应该没有。

还有，国内的权证市场可能有过多非专业小散的参与。这是我的猜测，如果属实的话，他们带到市场里去的非理性因素也会导致点位的不准。

如果你试验用百分比回撤做支撑/阻力一直不成功的话，那就说明市场里没有人用这个系统。如果别人不用，你也不要去用。

105# mambaa
请问你是使用什么软件或平台模拟的？我也想模拟一下。谢谢指导！

今天又试着去分析富时100，不知对不对，希望各位来指导指导！

又要麻烦一下大家，帮帮忙翻译一下102楼图里的这句话！
Traded the level as a resistence and look for the prious tend high.
谢谢啦！

109# 江湖小虾米

欧美股指习惯看MA50和MA200。MA120可以用来观察特定时期的趋势（也就是120天的周期），但是要留意你看的和多数人看的不一样。

背离的判断，在上升的趋势里，要把指标和价格的高点各自连成趋势线；下降趋势里，要把各自的低点连成趋势线。 你的图里用了价格的低点连线，是不对的。

还有半个小时开盘，今天需要格外关注日线图：

恩。知道了。谢谢了。正如你所说有人指点果然不一样。哈哈

113# 江湖小虾米

呵呵，不客气。这句话的意思：　

把这个点位当作（当时）的阻力来交易，目标看到上升趋势的之前一个高点。

出去了几天，回来发现这个贴越来越热闹了！！！大家多多交流啊！

才发现，昨天标普之所以有那么漂亮的大幅波动，还有一个重要原因是ＶＩＸ指数（芝加哥恐慌指数）的８月期权今天到期：

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q ... Hig&feature=sub

今天收盘后的5分钟内标普指数突然跌去一大截，看到消息说GM通用汽车要首次上市（IPO）。

谁能告诉我，难道通用汽车这么大的全球公司从来没有上过市吗？。。。。。。   之前也查过GM确实没有股票代码，我还以为那是危机的时候破产停牌了。 真是难以置信！

交易心理的一篇文章，随便看看。。。。

觉得第三个层次就足够挣一辈子的钱了，那第四个层次有点太玄，搞得好像独孤九剑似的。

Today, we touch again upon that never-ending debate, particularly amongst newer traders, about the role of psychology in becoming a profitable and successful trader. How much does it play a role in trading? Some argue it plays no role and that all that needs to be followed are one’s trading signals. Others swear that it’s role is 80-90%. How these percentages are calculated or how accurate they are is irrelevant. The truth is, psychology can make or break you.
We are all different. Some traders are incapable of changing their behavior and no matter what system they have decided to follow, they just cannot do it. Certain personality traits are in the driving seat and cause them to break all their rules. For instance, a personality type marked by greed combined with emotional traits such as impulsiveness will create the conditions leading to the eventual demise of even the most innately gifted trader. An over-confident personality susceptible to being governed by emotional forces such as impatience is a similar destructive psychological amalgamation; anything that moves is seen as a potential trade. Then there are the others – incidentally of whom there are very very few – who seem unaffected by their emotions when they trade.
Most of us belong however to a third group in our trading – we go through four different stages in our learning curve:

Stage 1 – we completely ignore or are unaware of the importance of psychology in our trading. Instead, we concentrate completely on the technicals.

Stage 2 – we could call this stage realization. We begin to realize that there is another element we have been missing. We become adept at reading the charts and yet we are not consistently able to make or keep money. So we start reading books and listening to others and the message is: our personalities are getting in the way.

Stage 3 – the role of psychology becomes unimportant again but not because we are ignoring it or are unaware of it as in Stage 1. We just do not have to worry about it any more. Inner barriers are overcome and we have managed to change ourselves and our behavior to the extent that we can execute our forex trading plan and follow our rules automatically. We no longer have to consciously think about the clutch or accelerator or the brakes, we just drive the car.
It is important to understand that Stage 3 is attainable and it should be our goal. Sadly, most traders get stuck at stage 2. They think about the role of psychology and their personalities continuously and to such an extent that they go round and round in circles. Their growth and development as a trader comes to a halt as they delve deeper and deeper into the inner workings of their minds. Stage 2 can be taken slowly but to become a successful trader, it has to be left behind at some point.

Stage 4 – this is a different dimension altogether and it may take years to achieve

.........................................

So let us look at each of these stages in more detail.

STAGE 1 – UNAWARENESS OF THE IMPORTANCE OF PSYCHOLOGY IN TRADING – there is little to be said about this stage – it is painfully obvious only when we have entered stage 2.

STAGE 2 – REALIZATION – after the trader becomes aware that what he or she thought was easy is certainly not, they begin to search for answers. Articles and books are read, information is sought on the web and forums are visited. The realization grows that his or her inner mind greatly influences his or her trading performance and that it is not always under conscious control.
In our daily lives, we are often confronted with the knowledge that our emotions lead us to do and say things we should not. We become angry when someone cuts in front of us in a queue or we get stuck behind some ‘idiot’ who doesn’t seem to realise that the speed limit is 30km/h and not 20km/h. What prevents us from delivering a left jab to these annoying individuals? What prevents us from walking into a cafe and lifting a delicious-looking piece of cake from someone’s plate? Self-control, self-discipline and social mores dictate our behaviour.
But what would happen if these controls were lifted and our inhibitions released? Could we restrain ourselves? Would we act out our emotions? With moral or ethical constraints no longer in place, would we succumb to temptation?
The answer is probably yes. And this is exactly the nature of the trading environment. There are no external factors to prevent us from causing damage to our accounts. There is nobody leaning over our shoulders to say ‘stop!!!!’ In the absence of external constraints, we need much stronger self-discipline and self-control in order to continue following our forex trading plan and rules. Those rules have to be found, built on and structured entirely by us. And then they have to be implemented and reinforced by us alone. Is there any other profession that requires such dedication and so much work on ourselves to become successful? Is it any surprise that trading is so hard to master and that 95% of traders fail in the process?
So what is the solution? We have to realise that the market is an uncertain environment. And that what is more important than anything else is the right mindset. In fact our success as traders is directly correlated to our ability to create this mindset and practice strong self-discipline.
But there is another even more crucial fundamental difference between the potential consequences of displaying emotions in the real world and world of the markets. In our social environment we can utilise emotions such as anger, rage, or the evocation of sympathy or pity through a display of sadness to influence or manipulate those around us to give in and succumb to our needs and demands. The market however, does not work that way for it is an environment that is totally and utterly impervious to our emotional displays. When trading, the only entity whose behaviour will be moulded by our emotions is us, for the merciless and immutable workings of the market dishes out losses and rewards solely on the basis of one factor: a rational determination to follow our rules.

STAGE 3 – CLARITY AND LIBERATION
As the chrysalis becomes a butterfly, a trader is born. We are no longer slave to our emotions and we are in control of our actions. No longer do we jump in and out of trades, nor do we micro-manage them once they have been placed. We set our stop and take profit target and then we walk away. We allow the market to ‘do it’s own thing’ by employing a set and forget trading style. As in our daily lives, so much is outside our control and the only power we have lies in the way we react to the cards that are dealt us. Thus we are not over-elated when our take profit is hit, nor do we fall into deep despair when we incur a loss. In fact, there is a direct negative correlation between the intensity of our emotional reactions to either events and our success as a trader.
Suddenly we can see the emotions of the herd on our charts without being part of that herd any longer. Thus we do not react to those herd-emotions but instead are able to evaluate and use those emotions to our advantage.
This clarity is liberating. Clarity and liberation constitute this stage of a trader’s development, if we have developed the ability to see clearly and understand what is happening. We now have the freedom to choose how we react. We are master of our own trading versus being part of the herd.
What else can a trader expect from this stage of development? He or she becomes a detached observer of the market, never involved emotionally yet constantly evaluating the emotions of other traders, waiting patiently for the right set-up to appear and not compromising by entering the market on low-probability trades.
The transition from Stage 2 to Stage 3 does not happen overnight. Like all learning experiences it is a process and a gradual one which is made up of a series of small clicks, each being another piece of the puzzle falling into place. There is a realization of how the market’s logic is not the same as the conventional Aristotle kind of logic, which was incorporated in the late 19th century into modern formal logic. There dawns the understanding of how Smart Money acts versus how the herd behaves and of how a chart reflects emotions. The knowledge develops that the trader does not have to participate in any market event, that he or she is free to choose which battles are to be entered into. Each click comes as a result of yet another lesson taught by the market, which is the greatest teacher of all. Rarely does it miss an opportunity to punish the trader for making mistakes. If you are an avid student of the market, you will listen carefully and take notes, collecting knowledge and experience. Ore goes in and steel comes out. This process takes time but it is worth it.
When you arrive at this point in your trading career, you will discover that this metamorphosis has transformed you not only as a trader but as a person. You will find that in your daily life you have more self-control and self-discipline, are more patient and less impulsive.
This sounds almost too good to be true. And there is indeed a big ‘BUT’. For this transformation is not necessarily a constant state. There will be times when those bad habits return and you suddenly realize that you have slipped back a few rungs on the ladder. You become over-confident, trigger-happy and complacent. You enter into less optimal trades and disregard your rules. The sooner you notice this, the sooner you can get yourself back on track. For the discarding of old destructive trading habits is not a single event but a process. It seems to be a human failing that when we achieve success, we tend to stop doing what led to that success in the first place. However, as frustrating as this may seem, when you overcome these set-backs and return to the right path, your skill of dealing with this phenomenon becomes better. Relapses are less frequent, you recognize them sooner and eliminate them faster. They will finally cease altogether when your reactions to the market become second nature.

STAGE 4 – the last stage of a trader’s development is easy to understand even if it is not easy to implement. If the trader is ready for the transition, then it will not be difficult.
The early stages of trading are full of emotional decisions which lead to erroneous entries and exits. These are the emotions that drive the herd. But as you slowly recognize, take control over and lessen their effect on your trading, they do not disappear entirely. The trader at this level has learned to separate them from his or her trading behavior and observe them in an objective and detached manner. Instead of becoming their slave, the trader can use them to his or her advantage. If you can feel the panic deep within yourself that ensues when there is a huge sell-off, those are exactly the emotions the herd is feeling too. Similarly, if you can feel that irresistible temptation to buy that enormous upward parabolic spike, you are slotting into how the herd feels too. How often have you sat and watched it go up and up and up until it becomes too unbearable to resist and you buy, only to find that the last traders have hit ‘buy at market’ already?
USE your own emotional reactions as a mirror to gauge the emotions of the herd. Once you recognize them then you will also know how the herd is going to act. Together with your improved and strict self-control, such an approach will put you on the right side of the market. And the right side is not usually the side of the herd.
However, I administer two warnings:
First, do not try to integrate this element of trading into your arsenal too soon. It is better to remain at Stage 3 long enough to become confident and consistent before you attempt to move onto Stage 4, which demands the implementation of a great deal of experience and self-control.
Secondly, as you progress on your journey, you may discover that you stop experiencing those herd-like emotions altogether and that your impulses are completely in synchronization with your own analysis and actions. When this happens, your attempt to read YOUR impulses as a window to the HERD’S impulses may backfire as you begin trading as a contrarian trader to yourself rather than the herd. Essentially then you become part of the herd again!
Look at it like this... There is a space between external influences and your reaction. YOU create this space by pausing before you react and your freedom of choice lies within that space. And YOU CAN CHOOSE the impulsive emotional reaction – or not. You can choose to ask yourself what reaction would be the best, what emotions are driving the price move and who is likely to be behind it, either smart money or the herd and you can choose to position yourself on the right side and make decisions which support that choice. You can choose to listen to your own emotions during that pause, evaluate the first impulsive response you felt compelled to make and analyze whether it was a valid decision or purely one that the herd would make, THUS MAKING YOUR FIRST IMPULSE A WINDOW INTO MASS PSYCHOLOGY.

原文：http://www.learntotradethemarket.com/forex-articles/the-psychology-of-forex-traders-profits/?awt_l=4.qOd&awt_m=1dp0gTKCs1wtMW

这句话真的深有体会。 自己一直在球队踢球，做了这么久交易后，对于tactic战术这个东西理解的越来越深。 所有的场地空间，位置，路线，都有一个最佳选择。 生活中需要不断做出的选择，就和交易一样，是相通的。 在心理上不断地修炼提高，确实是交易需要翻过的一座大山。过去了之后，所有的努力都会是值得的。