Old GM was hit hard by GFC and delisted. Legally the new GM is a different company, so it gets an IPO.

111# feng-pan
请问一下你说欧美股市多看MA50和MA200，那内地股市和香港股市呢？怎么知道自己看的是否也是市场上常用的？谢谢指导！

A股上用的多数是MA5,(10),20,60, (120),250。 港股的不清楚。 因为看到的技术分析报告（或者别人的技术分析）都是用同样的均线系统，所以就知道大家都用的是什么了。

昨天开盘前写过，如果突破了临近阻力就很可能加速上行。

可能由于等待这两天的重要数据，加上股指期权周五到期，昨天市场没有选择突破，而是再次确认了临近阻力并以横向区间的形态来等待周四周五的行情。

不管哪个方向突破，都很可能加速到达下一个支撑/阻力位。  所以这两天就重点关注一下数据的公布。 8月的期权到期日，历史统计说大部分都是推动上涨的，这个虽然有点迷信。。。。但也是要注意的事情。

9月很快就要到了，中小学的开学就意味着summer market的结束。 对冲基金的经理们各自从家庭假期中回到市场，或许会带来与近三个月不同形态的新的走势。

标普今天的盘面到处都在打小单的止损，搞得我都想骂人了。。。。。开盘前后这一会的走法是，在比较明显的入场点之后，比较明显的目标点位之前，每次都先打掉小单子的止损，然后再达到目标点位。  真不是一般的气人，按平常的操作，最有纪律的结果也只能是持平或小额亏损。今天收工了，晚上再回来总结。

基本面：Today's weekly jobless claims and Philly Fed reports were clearly disappointing and highlight the downside risks to the economy over the next several months.
技术面： We should see 3 waves down after seeing 5 waves up in the past.

如图，在一阵连续小额亏损后，心情比较烦燥，就没有再做了。结果躲过了后两个stop hunting，但错过了最后真正重要的突破。

今天操作的很不好，后面再接再厉吧。

Time	Position	Entry	Target	Stop	Profit/	Reason for trade and what happened	Learning points	Other points
(GMT)		Price	Profit	Loss	(Loss)
13:39	Long	1084.5	1087.5	1083.5(trailed to 1084.5)	(12.50)	Trading the support level on hourly chart, and looked for a previous high as well as the EMA10 on 5min chart. Stopped out.	No problem with the set up, but got stopped out by some stop hunting in the market.
13:41	Short	1084	1081	1084.5	(37.50)	Reverse the position after stopped out and traded the breakout. Looked for a regular 10-12 ticks profit. Stopped out.	It turnned out to be just a faulse breakout.	Should give it some space (4-8ticks) to confirm the breakout.
13:51	Short	1085.5	1083.5	1086.25	(50.00)	Short at previous high and looked for previous low. Stopped out.	Shoud have waited untill a retrace back to the EMA to go short.	This trade is very impatient. Had became a bit emotional after things didn't go right.
14:04	Short	1087.5	1083.5	1088	(25.00)	Shorted at the retrace to the EMA and looked for previous low. Stopped out.	Stop should be one tick higher to avoid been stopped out. But won't make any difference in this case anyway.
14:13	Short	1087	1083.5	1088.25	(62.50)	The overall momentum was going down, so went short and still looked for the previous low. Stopped out by a spike up after the US open.		This trade was obviously affected by the emotions, as all the previous trades had the right judgement but came out with bad excution and losses. Also it was too many attempts on one set up, a bit overtrading. After this trade, I decided to step out and clear my mind. Unfortunately, that caused me missing the real breakout on the important support level. Not a good day today. Just have to leave it behind and keep on working tomorrow.

For a trader who expects to make millions of trades over his lifetime, losing streaks are inevitable. When you do the maths, you know even losing 9 straight is not a matter of if, but when.

You should be happy that despite all the emotional disturbances you were disciplined enough to keep your losses small.

129# ectopic

Thanks a lot for the advise my friend!   I thought so as well.  Will try to trade smarter than this in the future.  

127# feng-pan
不好意思，作为入门者不太明白127楼图里的这句话“这5个地方都是大资金刻意打小单止损的地方”请问一下
1，“打小单”是什么意思？
2，怎么看出来是大资金刻意大小单？
谢谢指导

127# feng-pan

连续小额亏损后停下显然是正确的选择，否则成赌博了。

技术上感觉波浪理论结合费波拉契线在这种过山车般的走势中比较好用。前面5波向上已经完成。现在从这5波的最高点向下看, 今天的做空入场点最普通的选择应在38.2%处。今天到50.0%处反弹，明天周5. 则可考虑在 61.8%处抓反弹做多。

有时候价格到了很明显的支撑/阻力位，大家就都会把止损紧贴着点位放（尤其是我这样的操作系统，止损都只有一个tick那么远），而大笔的资金就会利用这一点，故意反着市场做，让价格稍微突破支撑/阻力位，然后再弹回来。这样的结果就是我这种小单子全部被止损，而大资金作为对手盘就都把单子吃了过去。大资金这么做的好处一是可以建立更大的头寸（就跟庄家震盘吸筹是一个道理），二是可以获得更大的利润空间。  

而小资金的单子如果把止损放远了，在这种情况下虽然能避过去，但长期来看由于增大了风险-收益比例，却是无法赢利的。 所以碰到这种情况也比较无奈，大鱼要吃小鱼，小鱼也没有办法。   以后慢慢多积累一些经验可能就好一些。 导师其实警告过说昨天可能会发生这种情况，可惜我经验尚浅，还是中招了。

恩，确实也看过波浪对现在的分析，前两天反弹后预期一波下跌。   所以昨天看跌势起来了就不断地想做空。  不过用波浪的操作多是做中线，止损要放很远。 公司的风险控制是每天只有20个tick的净亏损额度，到了就砍仓。所以我每笔的止损都不可能大于6个tick（通常是2-3个tick），需要再多止损的机会就不做了。

Time	Position	Entry	Target	Stop	Actual	Profit/	Reason for trade and what happened	Learning points	Other points
(GMT)		Price	Profit	Loss	Exit	(Loss)
14:30	Long	1069.25	1076	1067.75	1067.75	(75.00)	S&P broke a resistance and an uptrend was formed before US open. Longed at a retrace back to the break point, and looked for the intra-day high. Stopped out.		S&P had tested the important support level on daily chart, twice. But it looked like may need another test after US open.
14:34	Long	1068.5	1070	1067.5	1070	75.00	Price bounced up from the EMA, went for a quick long and looked for the high just been made 4mins ago. Target filled
14:45	Long	1066.25	1071	1065	1065	(62.50)	Price came back to test the support level once more. Went long to trade the bouce up. Stopped out.	Entry wasn't good enough, and it cost the trade.	Not patientient enough to wait for a better entry price this time.
14:52	Long	1064.5	1066	1064	1065.75	62.5	Got the entry point right this time. Looked for the previous bar's low first, and finally the intra-day high. Target filled		This time 'assume' the price will go all the way up to the intra-day high. Strategy was to close for profit at each resistance, and get back in after the level breaks, as long as the uptrend is NOT finished.
14:54:57	Long	1066.25	1067	1065.75	1067	37.50	Still in the process of last trade.
14:59:36	Long	1067.5	1071	1066.75(trailed to 1067.25)	1067.25	(12.50)	Still in the process of last trade.		Now that the price had broken the EMA, it singaled the trend was over. So no need to get back in any more. This strategy works better in strong trends. The price turned out to be just consolidation. Nevertheless, it's worth the effort to take the chances, considering not much to lose if wrong.
15:45	Long	1068.25	1071	1067.25	1067.25	(50.00)	Price had tested the support level once more, and a potential trangle breakout after consolidation. Went long and looked for a previous high.	With out the confirmation on hourly chart and the candlestick patten, this was not a high probability trade.	Perhaps shouldn't take the trade? Anyway, since the market was indecisive at the moument, the best case scenario would be to trade the breakout on the big support level on daily chart. Otherwise should just stay out of it.

136# feng-pan

问题：
1，已经列出了7个trade，有没有 overtrade 啊？
2，daytrade 要不要看 MACD，RSI 或者 Stochastic 等查考指标作为入场点？
3，大趋势已经确定向下，反向抓反弹应怎样确定入场点？

中间有四笔是连在一起的，只是出来又进去，跳过了一些阻力位置。（因为不太确定能弹多高，所以假设可以一直到日内高点，然后按着策略操作）。

现在看指标比较少了。不过想这样的混乱震荡，指标也都失效了。

第三个问题就不好说了。  我也没有太好的方法，尤其是像现在这样的summer market，走势都怪怪的，不好做。

138# feng-pan


下周如向下突破 1056，又该看低到1010了。

请问一下，美国星期二和星期三公布的房屋销售数据会带来什么影响呢?
会不会美国在星期一出现震荡？而公布数据后出现明确的方向呢？

140# 江湖小虾米

最近的数据没有一个是好于预期的，但市场就是跌不下去。 现在这种成交量低糜的情况下，也很难有什么大的行情。 等9月份成交量上来了再看看到底怎样。

回头看了看feng-pan以前的分析，教科书式的标准5波向上，并且每一波都在50%的回调线上调。现在应该是3波向下，如果认定现在是C3，抓反弹的入场点应该在哪里？我今天早晨开市后在61.8%进入做多，见到小盈利调止损到入场位，结果很快被止损出局。就不敢再进去了。现在再回头看，标普跌落到1040处反弹，到现在把今天的缺口都补齐了，还在向上。感觉很沮丧，觉得是一个很失败的 trade！该赚的没有赚到，还亏了交易费。但问题在哪里？1040 在技术上不应是support点位，因为前期早已经被突破，但今天偏在此处反弹！

142# 老渔夫

现在的市场不好做日内，小亏一些都很正常。 现在出数据就波动一下，然后就自由摆动或者毫无章法，不好做。我都快一整周没交易了。

关于1040的反弹，今天导师在盘后正好讲过的：  
（1040的反弹是在下午3点房屋数据时开始的，当时指数先跌，触及到1040后居然瞬时跳涨了三四十个点。我当时看着都傻了，事后想想觉得确实这是有大资金等在这个位置买入，一下把一大截的卖单都吃掉了）

中午1点半的失业金数据比较单一，适合用上下两个stop order来等大幅波动。所以今天就这么做了一笔。
(不好意思，图里又写错了。这上下的两个单子不是limit order, 应该是stop order。)

今天反弹的结果是基金逢高出逃，可见money managers 的熊市心理

道收于万点以下，这在心理上对多方是一个重击。标普的1040重新成为重要的 support 点位。明天周5，that will be a busy day as revised U.S. GDP data set the stage for Ben Bernanke's speech. The speech will focus on the economic outlook and the Fed's policy response. GDP 如果向下修正，1040 很有可能被击破。而Fed's 酝酿新刺激政策又可能鼓舞多方。因此周5很可能是一个更猛烈的过山车般的起落日。

3波向下的C浪尚未完结，有可能本月就会到达1010的7月低点附近。

8:30AM GDP 向下修正: Second-quarter U.S. gross domestic product revised down to 1.6% growth rate from 2.4%

145# 老渔夫

GDP的修正数据预期是1.5%，所以出来的1.6%是好于预期的，加上个人消费支出年率也好于预期，当时市场跳涨到小时图的一个61.8%斐氏线。后面就有被抛盘压下去了。   现在伯南克讲话，刚好往下测了1040，效果挺好。

错过了这一笔。结果被导师训话了，说这种交易是绝对不能错过的。

148# feng-pan

伯南克讲话的力量！

美联储可以通过下调利率来刺激需求，但其目标贷款利率已经逼近于零了。

        前任美联储(FED)副主席Alan Blinder周五(8月27日)表示，美联储主席伯南克(Ben S. Bernanke)可能并不倾向于通过非常规措施进一步放松货币政策。

　　Blinder说道："伯南克在今天的演讲中强调了 "如果必要" 一词，表明他并不倾向于采取任何措施，我认为他对非常规措施效果的看法可能较为悲观"。

　　Blinder指出，如果仅仅是依伯南克本人行事，则他可能会采取一些措施，但他在公开市场委员会(FOMC)内部也有较大的阻力，因此在宽松政策上将难以有所行动。

       同时，Blinder进一步指出，将银行在美联储的存款利率降至零水平下方可能是支持经济增长的最好选择，不过，美联储的 "备用弹药已经不足"。

      伯南克的讲话很有点学术气， 他说：“这一阶段的问题不在于我们是否动用金融手段来支持美国经济互动，制止通货紧缩。我们已经竭尽所能。问题在于，在目前的情况下，在额外经济刺激计划方面，各种手段是否有益，要权衡动用这些手段的附加成本和风险。”

       伯南克称美联储早前购买债券的计划有助于在2008年信贷危机后稳定美国经济，但他警告说，进一步扩大美联储的资产平衡，出台额外经济刺激计划的益处，还必须权衡潜在的风险和成本。

前些天回家了。
现在有2个小问题问下楼主。
1，在143楼的图中说“前期在1040区域买家积极涌入，有理由预期同样的价格会触发买家入场”但是在7月初1040被突破了吗，为什么此时没有触发买家入场，形成支撑？还有这样被突破后，1040还会被预期日后会触发买家入场吗？
2，在144楼所说的“2笔stop order”是怎样的交易技术？
谢谢指导！