【名称及出版时间】：  China Economics Social Housing: Lackluster Growth or Quantum Jump?
【来源】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】： PDF
【页数】： 15
【目录】：
What's the Issue: The social housing program has
attracted a lot of attention from market observers of late.
Many market observers had doubts about the progress
being made so far and the prospect of fulfilling the social
housing construction plan by the end of this year. At the
same time, a dearth of timely and reliable data on this
front makes it very difficult to evaluate and track the
progress along the way.
Our view: We revisit and reaffirm our calls that: 1) the
austere measures regarding property speculation will
not cause a hard landing in fixed-asset investment
growth in general and real estate investment growth in
particular; and 2) the social housing program is on track
and will constitute an important cushion for any potential
slowdown in private market-based residential property
construction and thus help ensure a soft landing in fixedasset
investment growth. Moreover, we highlight a
scenario featuring a potential “quantum jump” in
construction of social housing in the latter part of the
year that could tilt the balance of risks to the upside for
fixed-asset investment growth. In this context, a
potentially strong performance from a social housing
program in 2010 would make the authorities’ pledge to
“solve the housing problem for 15.4 million of
low-income households by end of 2012” a lot more
credible.
Where we differ: We take a hard look at the structure of
real estate construction activity in China. By presenting
our analysis in a flow chart format, we help clarify the
relative importance of market-based private residential
property construction vs. non-market-based residential
property construction and, in that context, highlight the
critical role of the social housing program in shaping the
potential outlook for investment growth. We also compile
a comprehensive set of data to help bridge an important
information gap for monitoring the progress of the social
housing program.