Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................... I
Glossary of Acronyms ..................................................................................................................V
Chapter One: Annual Update .......................................................................................................1
Developments in the Security Situation in the Taiwan Strait ..................................................1
Developments in the Size, Location, and Capabilities of PRC Military Forces .....................1
Developments in PLA Doctrine .................................................................................................. 4
Developments in PRC Efforts to Develop, Acquire, or Gain Access to Advanced Technologies
that Could Enhance its Military Capabilities .............................................................................. 6
Challenges to Taiwan’s Deterrent Forces ................................................................................... 6
Developments in China’s Space and Cyber Capabilities ............................................................ 7
China’s Foreign Military Engagement........................................................................................ 7
U.S. Engagement and Cooperation on Security Matters .......................................................... 10
Chapter Two: Understanding China’s Strategy ........................................................................... 13
Overview .................................................................................................................................. 13
China’s Strategic Priorities ....................................................................................................... 15
Debates on Future Strategy ....................................................................................................... 18
The New Historic Missions ...................................................................................................... 18
China’s Military Strategy .......................................................................................................... 22
Secrecy and Deception in PLA Military Strategy ..................................................................... 26
Asymmetric Warfighting .......................................................................................................... 27
Chapter Three: Force Modernization Goals and Trends .............................................................. 29
Overview .................................................................................................................................. 29
Anti-Access/Area-Denial Capabilities ...................................................................................... 29
Extended Operational Reach ..................................................................................................... 33
Strategic Capabilities ................................................................................................................ 34
Power Projection -- Modernization Beyond Taiwan ................................................................ 37
Chapter Four: Resources for Force Modernization ..................................................................... 41
Overview .................................................................................................................................. 41
Military Expenditure Trends ..................................................................................................... 41
China’s Advancing Defense Industries ..................................................................................... 43
Looking to the Future: Trends and Projections ........................................................................ 47
Overview .................................................................................................................................. 49
Beijing’s Strategy in the Taiwan Strait ..................................................................................... 50
Beijing’s Courses of Action Against Taiwan ........................................................................... 51
Overview .................................................................................................................................. 53
Opportunities and Challenges in U.S.-China Military-to-Military Relations ........................... 53
Appendix I: China and Taiwan Forces Data ................................................................................. 59
Appendix II: Military-to-Military Exchanges ............................................................................... 67