Two Different Economies in Transition 3
Structural convergence 4
Scale and penetration a key driver 8
Role of the government 10
Foreign influence 13
Role of capital 15
Role of labor 17
How to Value and Play This Transition 19
India has been a significantly higher ROE market…but for how
much longer 19
China’s profits, market value too concentrated for its broad
economy 21
Where are the big valuation differences? 22
Are govt-owned or regulated businesses a drag on valuation? 23
Chinese and Indian companies will go abroad 24
Will foreign acquisitions be good for equity shareholders? 25
Investment themes and sectors for the transition 26
Sector strength analysis 26
Multi-Strategy 28
Controlled inflation leads to outperformance 28
India correlated to shorter-term rates… 30
… and India equities expensive vs. bonds 33
Weak USD benefits China 34
Fund flow: Rate of change may predict 35
China more volatile historically…gap closing 37
Trade implementation: Two-prong horizon 38
Appendix 43
Appendix I: Relative Competitiveness of China & India 44
Appendix II: Sector Outlook 45
Appendix III: China Ahead in Equitisation, Lags in
Derivatives 48
Appendix IV: Economic Indicators 50
Appendix V: ROE & PER — China vs. India 52
Appendix A-1 58

很好 多谢