List of Contributors page vii
part i introduction
1. Taking the Interface between Mind and
Environment Seriously 3
Klaus Fiedler and Peter Juslin
part ii the psychological law of large numbers
2. Good Sampling, Distorted Views: The Perception
of Variability 33
Yaakov Kareev
3. Intuitive Judgments about Sample Size 53
Peter Sedlmeier
4. The Role of Information Sampling in Risky Choice 72
Ralph Hertwig, Greg Barron, Elke U. Weber, and Ido Erev
5. Less Is More in Covariation Detection – Or Is It? 92
Peter Juslin, Klaus Fiedler, and Nick Chater
part iii biased and unbiased judgments from
biased samples
6. Subjective Validity Judgments as an Index of Sensitivity to
Sampling Bias 127
Peter Freytag and Klaus Fiedler
7. An Analysis of Structural Availability Biases, and
a Brief Study 147
Robyn M. Dawes
8. Subjective Confidence and the Sampling of Knowledge 153
Joshua Klayman, Jack B. Soll, Peter Juslin, and Anders Winman
9. Contingency Learning and Biased Group Impressions 183
Thorsten Meiser
10. Mental Mechanisms: Speculations on Human Causal
Learning and Reasoning 210
Nick Chater and Mike Oaksford
part iv what information contents are sampled?
11. What’s in a Sample? A Manual for Building Cognitive
Theories 239
Gerd Gigerenzer
12. Assessing Evidential Support in Uncertain Environments 261
Chris M. White and Derek J. Koehler
13. Information Sampling in Group Decision Making: Sampling
Biases and Their Consequences 299
Andreas Mojzisch and Stefan Schulz-Hardt
14. Confidence in Aggregation of Opinions from
Multiple Sources 327
David V. Budescu
15. Self as Sample 353
Joachim I. Krueger, Melissa Acevedo, and Jordan M. Robbins
part v vicissitudes of sampling in the researcher’s
mind and method
16. WhichWorld Should Be Represented in Representative
Design? 381
Ulrich Hoffrage and Ralph Hertwig
17. “I’m m/n Confident That I’m Correct”: Confidence in
Foresight and Hindsight as a Sampling Probability 409
Anders Winman and Peter Juslin
18. Natural Sampling of Stimuli in (Artificial) Grammar
Learning 440
Fenna H. Poletiek
19. Is Confidence in Decisions Related to Feedback? Evidence
from Random Samples of Real-World Behavior 456
Robin M. Hogarth

Andreas Mojzisch, Universit¨at G¨ottingen, Germany
Mike Oaksford, University of London
Fenna Poletiek, Leiden University, The Netherlands
Jordan M. Robbins, Brown University
Stefan Schulz-Hardt, Universit¨at M¨ unchen, Germany
Peter Sedlmeier, Chemnitz University of Technology, Germany
Jack B. Soll, INSEAD Business School, France
ElkeWeber, Columbia University
Chris M. White, Universit´e de Lausanne, Switzerland
AndersWinman, Uppsala University, Sweden

好东西啊，感谢分享

各位讲得不错，不过能够进一步研究就好了！！！

好东西。。。。。

好东西啊！