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14 October 1976
THIS YEAR's ECONOMICS PRIZE TO AN AMERICAN The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has decided to award the 1976 Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel to Professor Milton Friedman, University of Chicago, Illinois, USA, for his achievements in the fields of consumption analysis, monetary history and theory, and for his demonstration of the complexity of stabilization policy.
Milton Friedman's name is chiefly associated with the renaissance of the role of money in inflation and the consequent renewed understanding of the instrument of monetary policy. He has given us the terms "money matters" or even, "only money matters", with the emergence of monetarism as a Chicago school. This strong emphasis on the role of money should be seen in the light of how economists - usually advocates of a narrow interpretation of Keynesian theory - have, for a long time, almost entirely ignored the significance of money and monetary policy when analyzing business cycles and inflation. As far back as the beginning of the fifties, Friedman was a pioneer in the well-founded reaction to the earlier post-Keynesian one-sidedness. And he succeeded - mainly thanks to his independence and brilliance - in initiating a very lively and fruitful scientific debate which has been going on for more than a decade. In fact, the macro-econometric models of today differ greatly from those of a couple of decades ago as far as the monetary factors go - and this is very much thanks to Friedman. The widespread debate on Friedman's theories also led to a review of monetary policies pursued by central banks - in the first place, in the United States. It is very rare for an economist to wield such influence, directly and indirectly, not only on the direction of scientific research but also on actual policies. Friedman has carried out a number of studies, which, scientifically speaking, are both original and weighty, in support of his analysis of the role of money. His empirical studies of the relationship between increases in the supply of money and the consequent changes in incomes and prices are thus founded on a new formulation of the theory of demand for money or liquid resources. His findings on the comparatively great relevance of the quantity theory in explaining developments is, in fact, built on the premise that the demand for money is in fact very stable. From the purely scientific point of view, Friedman's other achievements are of greater interest than his monetary analysis. Of primary importance here is his re-fashioning of the theory of consumption based on the hypothesis that "the permanent income" and not year-to-year income is the determining factor when assessing total consumption outlay. He makes the extremely valuable distinction between the temporary and more permanent incomes of households; Friedman has demonstrated that a much greater proportion of the former type of income is saved than the latter. Another of the important contributions has been studies of "lags" appearing in all areas of economic policy. It was Friedman who coined the terms "observation-lag", "decision-lag" and "effect-lag" to express a fundamental problem somewhat neglected earlier - and that is, the right timing for stabilization measures during a business cycle. Friedman has demonstrated how both prolonged "effect-lags" and those of varying lengths - of changes in the supply of money, for example - can have a destabilizing effect. The conclusion he draws for economic policy from these findings has been the subject of lively debate, and, to put it briefly, is that monetary policy should be simplified and that its goal should be to ensure a long-range stable growth rate of the supply of money. This view has been accepted to some extent by a few leading central banks. Friedman was the first to demonstrate that the accepted assumption of a simple trade-off between unemployment and the rate of inflation was only a temporary phenomenon; on the longer term (more than five years), no such trade-off exists. Unemployment below a structural level of balance thus leads, according to Friedman's theory, to a cumulative increase rate in prices and wages mainly on account of the destabilizing influence exerted by expectations. Modern ideas about the factors determining wage structures are very much based on Friedman's hypotheses on the importance of expectations of inflation. At the beginning of the fifties, Friedman was a pioneer among those recommending the reorganization of the international monetary system based on free rates of exchange. He studied the theory of the problem but also used empirical studies to assess how such a system could be made to work. Friedman was among those who first realized - and could explain - why the Bretton Woods System with relatively fixed rates of exchange was bound to break down sooner or later.
His major work, A Monetary History of the United States,1867 - 1960, is regarded as one of Friedman's most profound and also most distinguished achievements. Most outstanding is, perhaps, his original and energetically pursued study of the strategic role played by the policy of the Federal Reserve System in sparking off the 1929 crisis, and in deepening and prolonging the depression that followed. The critics agree that this is a monumental scientific work which will long stimulate the re-examination of the course of events during this epoch.
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Presentation Speech by Professor Erik Lundberg of the Royal Academy of Sciences Translation from the Swedish text
Your Majesties, Your Royal Highnesses, Ladies and Gentlemen, To a considerable extent, economists are concerned with questions of economic policy; how and why governments, in their efforts to solve crises, constantly create new complications inside and between countries. For the analysis and interpretation of all the different lines of development, demands are made on the methodology and model construction of the economist. Unfortunately the social sciences - despite high ambitions - can never reach the hoped for exactitude. The enormous capabilities of people and governments to create new complications, new contradictions and conflicts, are inexhaustible and go far above and beyond the economists' powers to bring order into the system.
This year's prize-winner in Economics is Milton Friedman. His research is in fact aimed precisely at bringing about clarity and system in our economic thoughts in a whole range of areas, which, apart from economic policy, includes economic history, economic theory and methodological questions.
Perhaps Friedman's most characteristic feature is his unique propensity and ability to effectively influence and disturb current notions and previously established knowledge. One can claim that without Friedman's provocative contribution in a series of areas, the development of economic research would have been different, or, possibly only later taken its present course. Friedman's ability to influence the course of research and debate on economic policy reminds one to some extent of Keynes. Against a background of effective, often powerfully simplified, criticism of current doctrines, Friedman has presented a different point of view, an alternative theory, most often with the support of empirical analysis.
Friedman's name is primarily associated with the renaissance of the idea of the importance of money in the explanation of inflation and the concomitant revived understanding of, and belief in, the possibilities of monetary policy. Through him we have acquired the slogan "money matters" or even "only money matters" in connection with the appearance of monetarism as a Chicago School. This marked emphasis on the role of money should be seen in the light of how economists - often successors to Keynes - over a long period of time almost totally neglected money and monetary policy in the analysis of the course of business cycles and inflation. From the beginning of the 1950s Friedman has pioneered a justified reaction against the earlier post- Keynesian bias. The intensive debate around Friedman's theories and theses also brought about a reconsideration of the monetary policies of the central banks - primarily in the U.S.A. and West Germany. It is rare indeed that an economist has gained such direct and indirect influence as Friedman has, not only on the course of scientific research, but also on actual policies.
Friedman's studies on lags in all types of economic policies should be recognized as one of his most fruitful contributions. It is Friedman who coined the expressions observation-, decision- and effect-lags as terms for previously rather neglected but fundamental difficulties in obtaining a correct timing for stabilization policies during the course of business cycles. Friedman has shown how the long and varying lags pertaining to changes in the supply of money, can work in a destabilizing way. His intensively discussed economic-political conclusions drawn from these observations are that monetary policy should be simplified and be less ambitious implying the goal of keeping a stable longterm rate of development for money supply. During recent years this point of view has been accepted, to some extent, by some leading central banks.
Friedman has left his mark on yet another area of the scientific debate on the causes of inflation. This concerns the course of diffusion of wage and price rises. Friedman was the first to show that the prevalent assumption of a simple "trade-off" between unemployment and the rate of inflation only held temporarily as a transient phenomenon; in the long run (more than five years) there is no such "trade-off". According to Friedman's theory, a level of unemployment which is held below a structural equilibrium level leads to a cumulative rate of price and wage increase, primarily because of the destabilizing role that expectations play. Presentday formulations of wage and price determination are, in important respects, built on Friedman's hypotheses about the importance of inflationary expectations.
A large part of Friedman's conclusions about the possibilities of economic policy is based on his liberal belief in the positive, built-in properties of a functioning market economy. Out of this derives his negative view of the ability of governmental authorities to intervene in market mechanisms, through financial and regulatory policies to reach full employment or prevent too large imports. But it is not only a question of philosophical and liberal-political belief. On several points Friedman has made stringent analyses of how a competitive market system works. At the beginning of the 1950s Friedman was the pioneer among proposers of a new order for the international currency system based on free exchange rates. He studied the problem theoretically but also looked for empirical evidence in order to judge how such a system would function. As a matter of fact, Friedman was one of the first to perceive - and to explain - why the Bretton Woods system, with relatively fixed exchange rates, must sooner or later break down.
From a purely scientific viewpoint, one of Friedman's most important contributions is his reshaping of consumption theory with the help of the hypotheses about "the permanent income", in place of current annual income, as a decisive factor in determining total consumption expenditure. Here an extremely fruitful distinction is made between households' temporary income and more permanent income; Friedman shows that a substantially larger part of the former income is saved than of the latter. Friedman has carefully tested this theory on comprehensive statistical material and gained interesting results. Friedman's version of the consumption function has had a lasting effect both on theory and on empirical research.
The large work "A Monetary History of the United States 1867-1960" should be seen as one of Friedman's most solid and at the same time pioneering contributions. Here Friedman has collaborated with an economic historian. The detailed analysis of the comprehensive historical-statistical material to a large extent bears Friedman's stamp. It is seldom that one experiences, as one does in this work, such a fine combination of a detailed historical account over the whole range of developmental phases, institutional changes, the multitude of personal contributions made by leading politicians and bankers, critical evaluation of the source material as well as a perspicacious and balanced economic analysis of the complicated material in question. Perhaps one notices especially his imaginative and energetically accomplished investigation of the strategic role played by the policy of the Federal Reserve System in setting off the 1929 crisis and in deepening and prolonging the following depression.
Professor Milton Friedman is awarded the 1976 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics for his contribution to consumption analysis and to monetary history and theory, including his observations of the complexity of stabilization policy.
Professor Friedman, On behalf of the Royal Academy of Sciences I ask you to receive your prize from the hands of His Majesty the King.
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I was born July 31, 1912, in Brooklyn, N.Y., the fourth and last child and first son of Sarah Ethel (Landau) and Jeno Saul Friedman. My parents were born in Carpatho-Ruthenia (then a province of Austria-Hungary; later, part of inter-war Czechoslovakia, and, currently, of the Soviet Union). They emigrated to the U.S. in their teens, meeting in New York. When I was a year old, my parents moved to Rahway, N.J., a small town about 20 miles from New York City. There, my mother ran a small retail "dry goods" store, while my father engaged in a succession of mostly unsuccessful "jobbing" ventures. The family income was small and highly uncertain; financial crisis was a constant companion. Yet there was always enough to eat, and the family atmosphere was warm and supportive. Along with my sisters, I attended public elementary and secondary schools, graduating from Rahway High School in 1928, just before my 16th birthday. My father died during my senior year in high school, leaving my mother plus two older sisters to support the family. Nonetheless, it was taken for granted that I would attend college, though, also, that I would have to finance myself. I was awarded a competitive scholarship to Rutgers University (then a relatively small and predominantly private university receiving limited financial assistance from the State of New Jersey, mostly in the form of such scholarship awards). I was graduated from Rutgers in 1932, financing the rest of my college expenses by the usual mixture of waiting on tables, clerking in a retail store, occasional entrepreneurial ventures, and summer earnings. Initially, I specialized in mathematics, intending to become an actuary, and went so far as to take actuarial examinations, passing several but also failing several. Shortly, however, I became interested in economics, and eventually ended with the equivalent of a major in both fields. In economics, I had the good fortune to be exposed to two remarkable men: Arthur F. Burns, then teaching at Rutgers while completing his doctoral dissertation for Columbia; and Homer Jones, teaching between spells of graduate work at the University of Chicago. Arthur Burns shaped my understanding of economic research, introduced me to the highest scientific standards, and became a guiding influence on my subsequent career. Homer Jones introduced me to rigorous economic theory, made economics exciting and relevant, and encouraged me to go on to graduate work. On his recommendation, the Chicago Economics Department offered me a tuition scholarship. As it happened, I was also offered a scholarship by Brown University in Applied Mathematics, but, by that time, I had definitely transferred my primary allegiance to economics. Arthur Burns and Homer Jones remain today among my closest and most valued friends. Though 1932-33, my first year at Chicago, was, financially, my most difficult year; intellectually, it opened new worlds. Jacob Viner, Frank Knight, Henry Schultz, Lloyd Mints, Henry Simons and, equally important, a brilliant group of graduate students from all over the world exposed me to a cosmopolitan and vibrant intellectual atmosphere of a kind that I had never dreamed existed. I have never recovered. Personally, the most important event of that year was meeting a shy, withdrawn, lovely, and extremely bright fellow economics student, Rose Director. We were married six years later, when our depression fears of where our livelihood would come from had been dissipated, and, in the words of the fairy tale, have lived happily ever after. Rose has been an active partner in all my professional work since that time. Thanks to Henry Schultz's friendship with Harold Hotelling, I was offered an attractive fellowship at Columbia for the next year. The year at Columbia widened my horizons still further. Harold Hotelling did for mathematical statistics what Jacob Viner had done for economic theory: revealed it to be an integrated logical whole, not a set of cook-book recipes. He also introduced me to rigorous mathematical economics. Wesley C. Mitchell, John M. Clark and others exposed me to an institutional and empirical approach and a view of economic theory that differed sharply from the Chicago view. Here, too, an exceptional group of fellow students were the most effective teachers. After the year at Columbia, I returned to Chicago, spending a year as research assistant to Henry Schultz who was then completing his classic, The Theory and Measurement of Demand. Equally important, I formed a lifelong friendship with two fellow students, George J. Stigler and W. Allen Wallis. Allen went first to New Deal Washington. Largely through his efforts, I followed in the summer of 1935, working at the National Resources Committee on the design of a large consumer budget study then under way. This was one of the two principal components of my later Theory of the Consumption Function. The other came from my next job - at the National Bureau of Economic Research, where I went in the fall of 1937 to assist Simon Kuznets in his studies of professional income. The end result was our jointly published Incomes from Independent Professional Practice, which also served as my doctoral dissertation at Columbia. That book was finished by 1940, but its publication was delayed until after the war because of controversy among some Bureau directors about our conclusion that the medical profession's monopoly powers had raised substantially the incomes of physicians relative to that of dentists. More important, scientifically, that book introduced the concepts of permanent and transitory income. The catalyst in combining my earlier consumption work with the income analysis in professional incomes into the permanent income hypothesis was a series of fireside conversations at our summer cottage in New Hampshire with my wife and two of our friends, Dorothy S. Brady and Margaret Reid, all of whom were at the time working on consumption. I spent 1941 to 1943 at the U.S. Treasury Department, working on wartime tax policy, and 1943-45 at Columbia University in a group headed by Harold Hotelling and W. Allen Wallis, working as a mathematical statistician on problems of weapon design, military tactics, and metallurgical experiments. My capacity as a mathematical statistician undoubtedly reached its zenith on V. E. Day, 1945. In 1945, I joined George Stigler at the University of Minnesota, from which he had been on leave. After one year there, I accepted an offer from the University of Chicago to teach economic theory, a position opened up by Jacob Viner's departure for Princeton. Chicago has been my intellectual home ever since. At about the same time, Arthur Burns, then director of research at the National Bureau, persuaded me to rejoin the Bureau's staff and take responsibility for their study of the role of money in the business cycle. The combination of Chicago and the Bureau has been highly productive. At Chicago, I established a "Workshop in Money and Banking". which has enabled our monetary studies to be a cumulative body of work to which many have contributed, rather than a one-man project. I have been fortunate in its participants, who include, I am proud to say, a large fraction of all the leading contributors to the revival in monetary studies that has been such a striking development in our science in the past two decades. At the Bureau, I was supported by Anna J. Schwartz, who brought an economic historian's skill, and an incredible capacity for painstaking attention to detail, to supplement my theoretical propensities. Our work on monetary history and statistics has been enriched and supplemented by both the empirical studies and the theoretical developments that have grown out of the Chicago Workshop. In the fall of 1950, I spent a quarter in Paris as a consultant to the U.S. governmental agency administering the Marshall Plan. My major assignment was to study the Schuman Plan, the precursor of the common market. This was the origin of my interest in floating exchange rates, since I concluded that a common market would inevitably founder without floating exchange rates. My essay, The Case for Flexible Exchange Rates, was one product. During the academic year 1953-54, I was a Fulbright Visiting Professor at Gonville & Caius College, Cambridge University. Because my liberal policy views were "extreme" by any Cambridge standards, I was acceptable to, and able greatly to profit from, both groups into which Cambridge economics was tragically and very deeply divided: D.H. Robertson and the "anti-Keynesians"; Joan Robinson, Richard Kahn and the Keynesian majority. Beginning in the early 1960s, I was increasingly drawn into the public arena, serving in 1964 as an economic adviser to Senator Goldwater in his unsuccessful quest for the presidency, and, in 1968, as one of a committee of economic advisers during Richard Nixon's successful quest. In 1966, I began to write a triweekly column on current affairs for Newsweek magazine, alternating with Paul Samuelson and Henry Wallich. However, these public activities have remained a minor avocation - I have consistently refused offers of full-time positions in Washington. My primary interest continues to be my scientific work. In 1977, I retire from active teaching at the University of Chicago, though retaining a link with the Department and its research activities. Thereafter, I shall continue to spend spring and summer months at our second home in Vermont, where I have ready access to the library at Dartmouth College - and autumn and winter months as a Senior Research Fellow at the Hoover lnstitution of Stanford University.
This autobiography/biography was written at the time of the award and later published in the book series Les Prix Nobel/Nobel Lectures. The information is sometimes updated with an addendum submitted by the Laureate. To cite this document, always state the source as shown above.
For more updated biographical information, see: Friedman, Milton & Rose D., Two Lucky People: Memoirs. University of Chicago Press. Chicago, 1998.
Milton Friedman's speech at the Nobel Banquet, December 10, 1976
Your Majesties, Your Royal Highnesses, Ladies and Gentlemen, It is a great honour and privilege for me to be here tonight, sharing in the reflected glory from my distinguished colleagues, not only the six fellow members of the class of 1976, but the many more who, over the past 76 years, have made the term Nobel Laureate the highest mark of distinction to which a scholar can aspire.
My science is a late-comer, the Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel having been established only in 1968 by the Central Bank of Sweden to celebrate its tercentenary. That circumstance does, I admit, leave me with something of a conflict of interest. As some of you may know, my monetary studies have led me to the conclusion that central banks could profitably be replaced by computers geared to provide a steady rate of growth in the quantity of money. Fortunately for me personally, and for a select group of fellow economists, that conclusion has had no practical impact… else there would have been no Central Bank of Sweden to have established the award I am honoured to receive. Should I draw the moral that sometimes to fail is to succeed? Whether I do or not, I suspect some economists may.
Delighted as I am with the award, I must confess that the past eight weeks have impressed on me that not only is there no free lunch, there is no free prize. It is a tribute to the world-wide repute of the Nobel awards that the announcement of an award converts its recipient into an instant expert on all and sundry, and unleashes hordes of ravenous newsmen and photographers from journals and T.V. stations around the world. I myself have been asked my opinion on everything from a cure for the common cold to the market value of a letter signed by John F. Kennedy. Needless to say, the attention is flattering, but also corrupting. Somehow, we badly need an antidote for both the inflated attention granted a Nobel Laureate in areas outside his competence and the inflated ego each of us is in so much danger of acquiring. My own field suggests one obvious antidote: competition through the establishment of many more such awards. But a product that has been so successful is not easy to displace. Hence, I suspect that our inflated egos are safe for a good long time to come.
I am deeply grateful to you not only for the honor you have conferred on me, but equally for your unfailing Swedish hospitality and friendship.
From Les Prix Nobel, 1976
Milton Friedman Senior Research Fellow
Expertise: Monetary and price theory, monetary history
PDF summary: Guide to Scholars 2003
Milton Friedman, recipient of the 1976 Nobel Memorial Prize for economic science, has been a senior research fellow at the Hoover Institution since 1977. He is also the Paul Snowden Russell Distinguished Service Professor Emeritus of Economics at the University of Chicago, where he taught from 1946 to 1976, and was a member of the research staff of the National Bureau of Economic Research from 1937 to 1981.
Friedman was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 1988 and received the National Medal of Science the same year.
He is widely regarded as the leader of the Chicago School of monetary economics, which stresses the importance of the quantity of money as an instrument of government policy and as a determinant of business cycles and inflation.
In addition to his scientific work, Friedman has also written extensively on public policy, always with a primary emphasis on the preservation and extension of individual freedom. His most important books in this field are (with Rose D. Friedman) Capitalism and Freedom (University of Chicago Press, 1962); Bright Promises, Dismal Performance (Thomas Horton and Daughters, 1983), which consists mostly of reprints of columns he wrote for Newsweek from 1966 to 1983; (with Rose D. Friedman) Free to Choose (Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, 1980), which complements a ten-part television series of the same name shown over the Public Broadcasting Service (PBS) network in early 1980; and (with Rose D. Friedman) Tyranny of the Status Quo (Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, 1984), which complements a three-part television series of the same name, shown over PBS in early 1984.
He was a member of the President's Commission on an All-Volunteer Armed Force and the President's Commission on White House Fellows. He was a member of President Ronald Reagan's Economic Policy Advisory Board (a group of experts from outside the government named in 1981 by President Reagan).
He has also been active in public affairs, serving as an informal economic adviser to Senator Barry Goldwater in his unsuccessful campaign for the presidency in 1964, to Richard Nixon in his successful 1968 campaign, to President Nixon subsequently, and to Ronald Reagan in his 1980 campaign.
He has published many books and articles, most notably A Theory of the Consumption Function, The Optimum Quantity of Money and Other Essays, and (with A. J. Schwartz) A Monetary History of the United States, Monetary Statistics of the United States, and Monetary Trends in the United States and the United Kingdom.
He is a past president of the American Economic Association, the Western Economic Association, and the Mont Pelerin Society and is a member of the American Philosophical Society and the National Academy of Sciences.
He also has been awarded honorary degrees by universities in the United States, Japan, Israel, and Guatemala, as well as the Grand Cordon of the First Class Order of the Sacred Treasure by the Japanese government in 1986.
Friedman received a B.A. in 1932 from Rutgers University, an M.A. in 1933 from the University of Chicago, and a Ph.D. in 1946 from Columbia University.
Two Lucky People, his and Rose D. Friedman's memoirs, was published in 1998 by the University of Chicago Press.
(2004)
Educational choice means that parents are given back a basic American ideal of freedom to choose as it applies to the education of their children. Yes, given back, for America's system was not founded in public education.
That interest began in 1955 when we reached the conclusion that government financing of primary and secondary schooling is entirely consistent with private administration of schooling, and that such a combination is both more equitable and more efficient than the existing linkage of financing with administration. We suggested that a way to separate financing and administration is to give parents who choose to send their children to private schools "a sum equal to the estimated cost of educating a child in a government school, provided that at least this sum was spent on education in an approved school. ... The interjection of competition would do much to promote a healthy variety of schools. It would do much, also, to introduce flexibility into school systems. Not least of its benefits would be to make the salaries of school teachers responsive to market forces."
Since then we have been involved in many attempts to introduce educational vouchers -- the term that has come to designate the arrangement we proposed. There is a distressing similarity to attempts made over three decades and from coast to coast. In each case, a dedicated group of citizens makes a well-thought through proposal. It initially garners widespread public support. The educational establishment -- administrators and teachers' unions -- then launches an attack that is notable for its mendacity but is backed by much larger financial resources than the proponents can command and succeeds in killing the proposal.
We have concluded that the achievement of effective parental choice requires an ongoing effort to inform the public about the issues and possible solutions, an effort that is not episodic, linked to particular legislative or ballot initiatives, but that is educational. It requires also the cooperation of the many groups around the country who are devoted to improving the quality of our schools, whether governmental or private.
This Foundation is our contribution to that objective.
http://www.friedmanfoundation.org/
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