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This Month’s Special Reports
Outlook for EM Rates
We expect increased differentiation across local markets and identify four main themes to guide our strategy
recommendations: delicate policy rebalancing act; resurgence of inflation pressures; technicals as important drivers of
performance; and exposure to core rates and EU credit ...................................................................................................20
Outlook for EM FX
In EMFX, attractive carry amid moderate appreciation should keep performance positive, while we see diminished risks
of a double dip recession in the US, and higher interest rate differentials as many EM central banks tighten.................. 27
Outlook for EM Sovereign Credit
We remain constructive on EM credit spreads on improving fundamentals and continued inflows, but in the meantime
see much reduced risk/reward in terms of total return potential on the back of likely rising UST yields and potential
renewed heightening of concerns over eurozone sovereign risk. We discuss the outlook of sovereign credit markets in
2011 and present our strategy recommendations............................................................................................................. 34
Global Growth Outlook and EM Inflation Performance
We look at the historical power of domestic and external factors behind EM inflation and find that a generalized inflation
hazard is unlikely under current expectations for global growth. Only few large economies like Brazil, China, and India
could experience inflation acceleration but potential currency appreciation seems powerful enough to moderate that risk.
.......................................................................................................................................................................................... 42
Perspectives on the Capital Flows to EM
We examine the nature of the recent capital flows to EM, the underlying drivers of the flows and the implications for EM
economies. We conclude that the asset-allocation shift towards higher weights for EM in global portfolios is likely to
continue in 2011 and should underpin the performance of EM assets for the coming year. ............................................ 48
EM Sovereign Risks in 2011 (and Beyond)
We simulate the path of public debt in EM based on unchanged fiscal policies. The resulting rise in EM debt (11% of
GDP by 2020) is modest compared with industrial countries (57% of GDP). EMEA remains the region under most stress,
facing an average increase in debt of 25% of GDP in the absence of adjustment............................................................ 53
EMEA Domestic Debt - 2011 Supply and Demand
Many governments in EMEA significantly loosened fiscal policy during the financial crisis, resulting in substantial
additional financing needs. Although fiscal policy is being tightened, net issuance remains much higher than pre-crisis.
We take a look across EMEA and assess the supply and demand outlook for domestic government debt in 2011. ....... 58
Global EM Equities - Evolving Structural Drivers
In initiating coverage on global EM equities we take a critical look at some of the likely long term drivers of the asset
class. In summary, we would advise asset allocators against becoming uncritical advocates of the GEM secular story,
since there is a significant risk of longer term underperformance, if policy makers and corporates fail to meet the
challenges of the post crisis global economy.................................................................................................................... 65
2011 LatAm Equity Markets Targets
Latam should see the fastest EPS growth in world. Growth drivers are skewed towards cyclical stocks, underscoring
earnings risk. Investors pay substantial premium for secular growth domestic consumption plays. Brazil has most upside
to 2011 targets, though we see pockets of overvaluation................................................................................................. 68
Theme Pieces ................................................................................................................................................................ 162