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2011-01-05
小弟英文水平有限,这两段话实在翻译不通顺,麻烦高手帮忙一下,必有重谢!言出必行!
       Daniel Gros (2010) has proposed that the main Western countries invoke the principle of reciprocity and declare that they will henceforth sell public debt only to official institutions from countries in which they have a reciprocal right to purchase public debt. He argues that this would be legal under the IMF Articles because these require only current account convertibility, and not freedom of capital movements. One could imagine that the United States and the European Union might nonetheless be unwilling to initiate a step that could be seen as a reversion toward capital controls, but it would be unfortunate if they were on those grounds to dismiss a potentially promising initiative.
      But this proposal does, of course, involve a species of capital controls, and one knows that capital controls are leaky. The first thing is therefore to examine whether the leaks would be likely to jeopardize achieving the objective. Gros argues that this is unlikely since it would require one or more financial institutions to become an intermediary for the Chinese and lie to the US authorities that the beneficial owner of the assets being invested was not from a country in which foreigners cannot buy and hold public debt instruments. It is one thing to agree that it would be unlikely that the Chinese would be able to continue large-scale investments in public debt, but there is also much private debt in the United States. Indeed, Gros himself argues subsequently the potential benefits to the United States of a  large move by the Chinese authorities to dump Treasury bills in favor of either US bank deposits or other private US assets.8 One cannot simultaneously argue that the Chinese would be unable to continue financing a large imbalance by buying private US assets and that it would be good news for the United States if the Chinese dumped Treasury bills in favor of US private assets.I find Gros’s second argument the more persuasive, and accordingly I assume that the Chinese could continue to finance their imbalance by buying private US assets. An effective sanction would have to involve also a prohibition on buying private US assets on a nonreciprocal basis, and the policing of that would be several orders of magnitude more difficult than anything Gros envisaged.
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2011-1-5 15:11:34
丹尼尔格罗斯(2010)提出,主要援引西方国家对等原则,并宣布他们将出售公共债务今后只能从他们所在国家的相互权利购买公共债务官方机构。他认为,这将是国际货币基金组织根据合法的,因为这些物品只需要经常项目可兑换,而不是资本的自由流动。人们可以想像,美国和欧盟可能仍然不愿意发起一项可以看作是向资本管制回归见过的一步,但它是不幸的,如果他们在那些理由解雇具有潜力的倡议。
      但这个建议呢,当然,涉及资本控制一个物种,以及人都知道,资本管制漏水。因此,第一件事情就是检查是否泄漏很可能危及实现这一目标。格罗斯指出,这是不可能的,因为它需要一个或多个金融机构,成为了中国的中介和谎言,美国当局资产的实益拥有被投资不是从一个国家的外国人不能购买和举行公开债务工具。这是一回事,同意,这将是不可能的中国将能够继续在公共债务大规模投资,但也有许多在美国的私人债务。事实上,格罗斯认为自己后来的潜在好处的一个由中国当局大移动或倾倒在美国的银行存款或国债有利于美国的其他美国私人assets.8一个人不能同时认为,中国将无法继续通过购买美国私人融资资产,这将是对美国的好消息,如果中国倾销赞成国库券美国私人assets.I找到格罗斯的第二个论点越有说服力的大不平衡,因此,我认为在中国可以继续通过购买美国私人金融资产的不平衡。一个有效的制裁也将参与对非互易的基础上购买一美国私人资产的禁令,以及警务工作,将是更加困难了几个数量级比任何格罗斯设想。
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