小弟英文水平有限,这两段话实在翻译不通顺,麻烦高手帮忙一下,必有重谢!言出必行!
Daniel Gros (2010) has proposed that the main Western countries invoke the principle of reciprocity and declare that they will henceforth sell public debt only to official institutions from countries in which they have a reciprocal right to purchase public debt. He argues that this would be legal under the IMF Articles because these require only current account convertibility, and not freedom of capital movements. One could imagine that the United States and the European Union might nonetheless be unwilling to initiate a step that could be seen as a reversion toward capital controls, but it would be unfortunate if they were on those grounds to dismiss a potentially promising initiative.
But this proposal does, of course, involve a species of capital controls, and one knows that capital controls are leaky. The first thing is therefore to examine whether the leaks would be likely to jeopardize achieving the objective. Gros argues that this is unlikely since it would require one or more financial institutions to become an intermediary for the Chinese and lie to the US authorities that the beneficial owner of the assets being invested was not from a country in which foreigners cannot buy and hold public debt instruments. It is one thing to agree that it would be unlikely that the Chinese would be able to continue large-scale investments in public debt, but there is also much private debt in the United States. Indeed, Gros himself argues subsequently the potential benefits to the United States of a large move by the Chinese authorities to dump Treasury bills in favor of either US bank deposits or other private US assets.8 One cannot simultaneously argue that the Chinese would be unable to continue financing a large imbalance by buying private US assets and that it would be good news for the United States if the Chinese dumped Treasury bills in favor of US private assets.I find Gros’s second argument the more persuasive, and accordingly I assume that the Chinese could continue to finance their imbalance by buying private US assets. An effective sanction would have to involve also a prohibition on buying private US assets on a nonreciprocal basis, and the policing of that would be several orders of magnitude more difficult than anything Gros envisaged.