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The economy
We continue to raise global growth forecasts, now seeing 3.7% Q4/Q4,
with further upside risk. The recovery enters a more mature phase with
services and the US creating new leadership. Inflation risks are centered
on EM, but EM central banks are resisting early tightening.
• Asset allocation
The strengthening world economy, flow and return momentum and value
all favor aggressive overweights of private-sector securities over publicsector
debt. We have a large overweight of equities over fixed income
and non-financial credit over government debt.
• Top assets to own, and to avoid
We project double digit total returns for 2011 for Public Equities (18%),
Private Equity (19%), Commodities (17%) and Hedge Funds (11%). This
contrasts with near zero total returns for government bonds. We use our
19% UW in goverment bonds to fund a 5% OW in HY corporate bonds, a
10% OW in alternatives and 4% OW in equities.
• Fixed income
Continue to hold cautious long duration positions, with elevated carry
counterbalancing the likelihood of higher yields. Stay underweight
European peripherals, ahead of heavy maturities in the early part of the
year. Position for lower Euro area money market rates.
• Credit
Overweight higher-yielding credits. Our top picks are US high-yield bonds,
top-quality US CMBS, EM dollar corporates and subordinate CLOs. Stay
underweight in European versus US banks.
• Equities
We raise exposure to directional trades (i.e. outright longs in MSCI AC
World and convertible bonds) and reverse our overweights in EM vs. DM
and large vs. small caps. Across sectors we continue to overweight sectors
with the strongest momentum over the past year.
• Currencies
Low rates beat strong US growth in pushing the dollar down further.
Record lows are possible on USD/JPY (78), EUR/CHF (1.27) and
USD/CHF (0.86).
• Commodities
Commodities returned 9% in 2010 on supply constraints and a pickup in
demand. 2011 should see a further 17% total return driven by continued
momentum in global growth, constrained production and low inventories.