目 录

一、金秋时分：却是播种的季节··················································································································································1
1、宏观调控: 影响还只是“幻象” ···································································································································1
2、企业业绩：趋势与结构日渐清晰··································································································································5
3、市场动力：业绩增长还是价值重估····························································································································10
二、水来土掩：如何发掘新的投资主线····································································································································13
1、宏观调控：为什么总是周而复始？····························································································································13
2、要素价格：发现和解决问题的逻辑起点····················································································································14
3、土地要素：新的投资思路···········································································································································14
三、行业资产配置与重点行业展望············································································································································16
1、中信覆盖行业预测·······················································································································································16
2、重点行业展望·······························································································································································18
四、数据分析与估值····································································································································································28
1、市场估值·······································································································································································28
2、宏观因素·······································································································································································30
3、市场及技术因素···························································································································································32
4、基本面估值预测···························································································································································34
5、国际估值比较·······························································································································································40
五、图表附录·················································································································································································42
1、股票市场回顾·······························································································································································42
2、宏观经济指标·······························································································································································44
3、重要商品价格·······························································································································································45