摘要翻译：
Bordo和Helbing(2003)的主要研究分析了1881-2001年西方经济体的经济周期。他们考察了经济史上四个不同的时期，并得出结论，在20世纪的大部分时间里，存在着一种走向更大同步的长期趋势。他们的分析与关于经济周期同步的标准经济文献一样，依赖于对宏观经济总量的时间序列数据的经验相关矩阵的估计。然而，由于观测次数少，且经济，经验相关矩阵可能含有相当大的噪声。随机矩阵理论就是为了克服这一问题而发展起来的。我使用随机矩阵理论，以及相关的聚集层次聚类技术，来考察长期内资本主义经济体之间经济周期同步性的演化。与Bordo和Helbing的发现相反，在整个时期内，不可能说出更大的同步性的“长期趋势”。在第一次世界大战前的时期，每年实际GDP增长的跨国相关性与那些可以由纯粹随机矩阵产生的相关性是无法区分的。1920-38年和1948-72年确实显示出一定程度的同步性，但非常微弱。特别是，主要经济体的周期不能说是同步的。总体数据中存在的这种同步是由于子组中有意义的共同运动。因此，同步的程度是断断续续地演变的。只有在最近的1973-2006年期间，我们才能有意义地谈论任何类似于国际商业周期的事情。
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英文标题：
《Random matrix theory and the evolution of business cycle synchronisation
  1886-2006》
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作者：
Paul Ormerod
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最新提交年份：
2008
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：Statistical Finance        统计金融
分类描述：Statistical, econometric and econophysics analyses with applications to financial markets and economic data
统计、计量经济学和经济物理学分析及其在金融市场和经济数据中的应用
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一级分类：Physics        物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society        物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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英文摘要：
  The major study by Bordo and Helbing (2003) analyses the business cycle in Western economies 1881-2001. They examine four distinct periods in economic history, and conclude that there is a secular trend towards greater synchronisation for much of the 20th century. Their analysis, in common with the standard economic literature on business cycle synchronisation, relies upon the estimation of an empirical correlation matrix of time series data of macroeconomic aggregates. However because of the small number of observations and economies, the empirical correlation matrix may contain considerable noise. Random matrix theory was developed to overcome this problem. I use random matrix theory, and the associated technique of agglomerative hierarchical clustering, to examine the evolution of business cycle synchronisation between the capitalist economies in the long-run. Contrary to the findings of Bordo and Helbing, it is not possible to speak of a 'secular trend' towards greater synchronisation over the period as a whole. During the pre-First World War period, the cross-country correlations of annual real GDP growth are indistinguishable from those which could be generated by a purely random matrix. The periods 1920-38 and 1948-72 do show a certain degree of synchronisation, but it is very weak. In particular, the cycles of the major economies cannot be said to be synchronised. Such synchronisation as exists in the overall data is due to meaningful co-movements in sub-groups. So the degree of synchronisation has evolved fitfully. It is only in the most recent 1973-2006 period that we can speak meaningfully of anything resembling an international business cycle.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/0807.1771