摘要翻译：
商业周期同步文献中使用的大多数分析技术依赖于对宏观经济总量时间序列数据的经验相关矩阵的估计，实际GDP通常是关键变量。但是，可用的观测数量和经济数量都很少，这意味着经验相关矩阵可能包含相当大的噪声。随机矩阵理论是为了克服这一问题而在物理学中发展起来的。相关矩阵的最大特征值直接告诉我们经济活动真正相关的程度。商业周期同步性的演化可以用固定数据窗口上最大特征值的时间演化来分析。我分析了欧盟核心经济体德国、法国、意大利、西班牙、荷兰和比利时的季度实际GDP数据，以及作为比较国的英国（英国是欧盟成员，但不是欧元）。在整个时期，欧盟核心经济体表现出了不同但强劲的同步性。相比之下，英国和美国与欧盟核心经济体的同步程度要高得多。
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英文标题：
《The evolution of EU business cycle synchronisation 1981-2007》
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作者：
Paul Ormerod
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最新提交年份：
2008
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：Statistical Finance        统计金融
分类描述：Statistical, econometric and econophysics analyses with applications to financial markets and economic data
统计、计量经济学和经济物理学分析及其在金融市场和经济数据中的应用
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一级分类：Physics        物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society        物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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英文摘要：
  Most of the analytical techniques used in the business cycle synchronisation literature rely upon the estimation of an empirical correlation matrix of time series data of macroeconomic aggregates, real GDP usually being the key variable. But the small number of available observations and small number of economies mean that the empirical correlation matrix may contain considerable noise. Random matrix theory was developed in physics to overcome this problem. The largest eigenvalue of the correlation matrix informs us directly about the degree to which movements of the economies are genuinely correlated. The evolution of business cycle synchronisation can be analysed with the temporal evolution of the largest eigenvalue over a fixed window of data. I analyse quarterly real GDP data 1981Q1-2008Q1 for the core EU economies - Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Netherlands, Belgium - along with the UK, which is a member of the EU but not the Euro, and the US as a comparator. The core EU economies have shown varying but strong synchronisation over the whole period. In contrast, the UK and the US are much more synchronised with each other than they are with the core EU economies.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/0807.1831