摘要翻译：
当前新冠肺炎疫情正在全球范围内迅速蔓延，如果失控，可能成为现代史上最大的流行病事件之一。看来，大多数SARS-CoV2病毒感染导致的死亡主要是由于肺或多器官功能障碍或衰竭，这可能是由于宿主免疫功能障碍，特别是高炎症型疾病。在这篇简短的综述和研究中，提出了一个数学模型来将宿主单位内的病原体感染恢复概率(PIRP)与促炎抗病原体物种(PIAPS)水平相关联，当PIAPS水平等于或接近PIAPS平衡水平时，PIRP最大。在此模型的基础上，合理或有效的治疗策略可以在正确的阶段或时机、正确的药物类型（免疫刺激或免疫抑制剂）和正确的剂量下设计和实施，以期有效地实现最大的PIRP或降低死亡率。
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英文标题：
《Pathogen Infection Recovery Probability (PIRP) Versus Proinflammatory
  Anti-Pathogen Species (PIAPS) Levels: Modelling and Therapeutic Strategies》
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作者：
Sam-Shajing Sun
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最新提交年份：
2020
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Biology        数量生物学
二级分类：Other Quantitative Biology        其他定量生物学
分类描述：Work in quantitative biology that does not fit into the other q-bio classifications
不适合其他q-bio分类的定量生物学工作
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英文摘要：
  Current CoVID-19 pandemic is spreading rapidly worldwide, and it may become one of the largest pandemic events in modern history if out of control. It appears most of the SARS-CoV2 virus infection resulted deaths are mainly due to dysfunctions or failures of the lung or multiple organs that could be attributed to hosts immunodysfunctions particularly hyperinflammatory type disorders. In this brief review and study, a math model is proposed to correlate the Pathogen Infection Recovery Probability (PIRP) versus Proinflammatory Anti-Pathogen Species (PIAPS) levels within a host unit, where a maximum PIRP is exhibited when the PIAPS levels are equal to or around PIAPS equilibrium levels at the pathogen elimination or clearance onset. Based on this model, rational or effective therapeutic strategies at right stages or timing, with right type of agents (immuno-stimulators or immuno-suppressors), and right dosages, may be designed and implemented that are expected to effectively achieve maximum PIRP or reduce the mortality.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.05507