摘要翻译：
我们提出了一项关于大流行性流感的全球传播及其在全球一级可能遏制的研究，同时考虑到所有现有的航空旅行信息。我们研究了一个考虑城市间航空旅行流数据的全球规模的集合种群随机流行病模型。我们提供了该流行病的时间和空间演变，并对病毒的不同传染性水平和最初爆发条件（地理和季节）进行了敏感性分析。对于每一种传播情况，我们提供了该流行病在220个不同国家的3100个城市地区的时间表和地理影响。我们比较了不同遏制策略的基线病例，包括旅行限制和抗病毒(AV)药物的治疗使用。我们表明，在评估全球疫情发生概率时，包括空运是至关重要的。在所有受影响国家大规模使用AV药物治疗，将能够减轻第一年生殖率高达1.9的流行病影响；AV供应的使用足以治疗大约2%至6%的人口，同时有效地发现病例和及时地分发药物。对于高传染性病毒（即繁殖率高达2.3)，即使不切实际地使用相当于治疗大约20%人口的用品，也会使30%-50%的人口受到感染。在艾滋病病毒供应有限和繁殖率高达1.9的流行病的情况下，我们证明，战略越合作，在世界所有区域，包括那些将其部分资源提供给全球使用的国家，遏制结果就越有效。
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英文标题：
《Modeling the Worldwide Spread of Pandemic Influenza: Baseline Case and
  Containment Interventions》
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作者：
Vittoria Colizza, Alain Barrat, Marc Barthelemy, Alain-Jacques
  Valleron, Alessandro Vespignani
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最新提交年份：
2007
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Biology        数量生物学
二级分类：Other Quantitative Biology        其他定量生物学
分类描述：Work in quantitative biology that does not fit into the other q-bio classifications
不适合其他q-bio分类的定量生物学工作
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一级分类：Physics        物理学
二级分类：Statistical Mechanics        统计力学
分类描述：Phase transitions, thermodynamics, field theory, non-equilibrium phenomena, renormalization group and scaling, integrable models, turbulence
相变，热力学，场论，非平衡现象，重整化群和标度，可积模型，湍流
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一级分类：Physics        物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society        物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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英文摘要：
  We present a study of the worldwide spread of a pandemic influenza and its possible containment at a global level taking into account all available information on air travel. We studied a metapopulation stochastic epidemic model on a global scale that considers airline travel flow data among urban areas. We provided a temporal and spatial evolution of the pandemic with a sensitivity analysis of different levels of infectiousness of the virus and initial outbreak conditions (both geographical and seasonal). For each spreading scenario we provided the timeline and the geographical impact of the pandemic in 3,100 urban areas, located in 220 different countries. We compared the baseline cases with different containment strategies, including travel restrictions and the therapeutic use of antiviral (AV) drugs. We show that the inclusion of air transportation is crucial in the assessment of the occurrence probability of global outbreaks. The large-scale therapeutic usage of AV drugs in all hit countries would be able to mitigate a pandemic effect with a reproductive rate as high as 1.9 during the first year; with AV supply use sufficient to treat approximately 2% to 6% of the population, in conjunction with efficient case detection and timely drug distribution. For highly contagious viruses (i.e., a reproductive rate as high as 2.3), even the unrealistic use of supplies corresponding to the treatment of approximately 20% of the population leaves 30%-50% of the population infected. In the case of limited AV supplies and pandemics with a reproductive rate as high as 1.9, we demonstrate that the more cooperative the strategy, the more effective are the containment results in all regions of the world, including those countries that made part of their resources available for global use.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/q-bio/0701038