摘要翻译：
本文介绍了一种将技术改进率（摩尔定律）与技术采用曲线（S曲线）联系起来的方法。围绕摩尔定律和应用于其他技术的性能的时间依赖性的广义版本已经有了相当多的研究。以前的工作已经达到了对几乎任何技术的技术改进率进行定量估计的方法的高潮。本文研究了技术采用过程中关键事件的时间对绩效的这种规律性时间依赖性的影响。我们提出了一个简单的性能交叉点，它是基于目标技术和替代技术的技术改进率和当前水平差异。交叉的时间被假设为对应于第一个“膝盖”？在技术采用的“S曲线”和信号，什么时候市场对给定的技术将开始奖励创新者。这也是潜在的进入者可能会激烈地尝试产品与市场的匹配，以及实现主导设计的竞争开始的时候。然后通过考察互联网带来的两个技术变革，即音乐和视频传输，对这一概念框架进行了反向检验。围绕案例的不确定性分析突出了组织减少未来技术不确定性的机会。总体而言，案例研究的结果支持了概念框架在战略业务决策中的可靠性和实用性，但警告说，虽然技术不确定性减少了，但它并没有消除。
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英文标题：
《Data-Driven Investment Decision-Making: Applying Moore's Law and
  S-Curves to Business Strategies》
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作者：
Christopher L. Benson and Christopher L. Magee
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最新提交年份：
2018
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分类信息：

一级分类：Economics        经济学
二级分类：Econometrics        计量经济学
分类描述：Econometric Theory, Micro-Econometrics, Macro-Econometrics, Empirical Content of Economic Relations discovered via New Methods, Methodological Aspects of the Application of Statistical Inference to Economic Data.
计量经济学理论，微观计量经济学，宏观计量经济学，通过新方法发现的经济关系的实证内容，统计推论应用于经济数据的方法论方面。
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英文摘要：
  This paper introduces a method for linking technological improvement rates (i.e. Moore's Law) and technology adoption curves (i.e. S-Curves). There has been considerable research surrounding Moore's Law and the generalized versions applied to the time dependence of performance for other technologies. The prior work has culminated with methodology for quantitative estimation of technological improvement rates for nearly any technology. This paper examines the implications of such regular time dependence for performance upon the timing of key events in the technological adoption process. We propose a simple crossover point in performance which is based upon the technological improvement rates and current level differences for target and replacement technologies. The timing for the cross-over is hypothesized as corresponding to the first 'knee'? in the technology adoption "S-curve" and signals when the market for a given technology will start to be rewarding for innovators. This is also when potential entrants are likely to intensely experiment with product-market fit and when the competition to achieve a dominant design begins. This conceptual framework is then back-tested by examining two technological changes brought about by the internet, namely music and video transmission. The uncertainty analysis around the cases highlight opportunities for organizations to reduce future technological uncertainty. Overall, the results from the case studies support the reliability and utility of the conceptual framework in strategic business decision-making with the caveat that while technical uncertainty is reduced, it is not eliminated.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1805.06339