摘要翻译：
大规模网络的系统研究揭示了以大规模异质性和无界统计涨落为特征的连通模式的普遍存在。这些特征极大地影响了网络上发生的扩散过程的行为，决定了其演化模式和动力学的随后的统计特性。在本文中，我们研究了航空运输网络的大规模性质在决定新出现疾病的全球演化中的作用。我们提出了一个预测全球流行病的随机计算框架，该框架考虑了由人口普查数据补充的完整的全球航空旅行基础设施。我们研究了全球流行病建模中的两个基本问题：（1）我们研究了航空运输网络的大规模特性在确定新出现疾病的全球扩散模式中的作用；（2）我们根据疾病传播和交通流的内在随机性来评估预测和爆发情景的可靠性。为了解决这些问题，我们定义了一组新的定量测度，这些测度能够表征流行病模式的异质性和可预测性，这些测度可以用于控制策略的分析和流行病风险评估。
---
英文标题：
《Prediction and predictability of global epidemics: the role of the
  airline transportation network》
---
作者：
Vittoria Colizza, Alain Barrat, Marc Barthelemy and Alessandro
  Vespignani
---
最新提交年份：
2005
---
分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Biology        数量生物学
二级分类：Other Quantitative Biology        其他定量生物学
分类描述：Work in quantitative biology that does not fit into the other q-bio classifications
不适合其他q-bio分类的定量生物学工作
--
一级分类：Physics        物理学
二级分类：Biological Physics        生物物理学
分类描述：Molecular biophysics, cellular biophysics, neurological biophysics, membrane biophysics, single-molecule biophysics, ecological biophysics, quantum phenomena in biological systems (quantum biophysics), theoretical biophysics, molecular dynamics/modeling and simulation, game theory, biomechanics, bioinformatics, microorganisms, virology, evolution, biophysical methods.
分子生物物理、细胞生物物理、神经生物物理、膜生物物理、单分子生物物理、生态生物物理、生物系统中的量子现象（量子生物物理）、理论生物物理、分子动力学/建模与模拟、博弈论、生物力学、生物信息学、微生物、病毒学、进化论、生物物理方法。
--

---
英文摘要：
  The systematic study of large-scale networks has unveiled the ubiquitous presence of connectivity patterns characterized by large scale heterogeneities and unbounded statistical fluctuations. These features affect dramatically the behavior of the diffusion processes occurring on networks, determining the ensuing statistical properties of their evolution pattern and dynamics. In this paper, we investigate the role of the large scale properties of the airline transportation network in determining the global evolution of emerging disease. We present a stochastic computational framework for the forecast of global epidemics that considers the complete world-wide air travel infrastructure complemented with census population data. We address two basic issues in global epidemic modeling: i) We study the role of the large scale properties of the airline transportation network in determining the global diffusion pattern of emerging diseases; ii) We evaluate the reliability of forecasts and outbreak scenarios with respect to the intrinsic stochasticity of disease transmission and traffic flows. In order to address these issues we define a set of novel quantitative measures able to characterize the level of heterogeneity and predictability of the epidemic pattern. These measures may be used for the analysis of containment policies and epidemic risk assessment.
---
PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/q-bio/0507029