摘要翻译：
引入了一个动态模型，用于在给定市场中驱动资产价格的看涨或看跌趋势的形成。最初，每个代理人根据自己的个人意见决定购买或出售，这是由自己的私人信息、公开信息和自己的分析相结合的结果。然后，当它观察一组随机选择的其他代理人的行为时，它通过市场调整这种意见。然后，它的选择由包括它自己在内的当地多数规则决定。当被选择的群体处于平局时，即它还没有决定该做什么，选择是由关于当时预期趋势的局部群体信念来决定的。这些局部调整创造了一种主导市场价格形成的动态。在均衡预期的情况下，市场可以有效地成功地使“正确的价格”从所有包含基本价值的局部单个信息的顺序集合中产生。然而，当一个主要的乐观信念占上风时，同样有效的市场机制被发现会产生一个看涨的动态，即使大多数代理人有看跌的私人信息。于是，市场在基本价值和市场价值之间产生了越来越大的差异，这反过来又造成了投机泡沫。然而，泡沫的增长存在一个限度，私人意见再次接管，并立即扭转趋势，引发突然的熊市趋势。而且，在集体预期发生剧烈转变的情况下，价格水平的巨大下跌也可能发生得极快，并使市场失去控制，这就是市场崩盘。
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英文标题：
《Market efficiency, anticipation and the formation of bubbles-crashes》
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作者：
Serge Galam
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最新提交年份：
2011
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分类信息：

一级分类：Physics        物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society        物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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一级分类：Computer Science        计算机科学
二级分类：Social and Information Networks        社会和信息网络
分类描述：Covers the design, analysis, and modeling of social and information networks, including their applications for on-line information access, communication, and interaction, and their roles as datasets in the exploration of questions in these and other domains, including connections to the social and biological sciences. Analysis and modeling of such networks includes topics in ACM Subject classes F.2, G.2, G.3, H.2, and I.2; applications in computing include topics in H.3, H.4, and H.5; and applications at the interface of computing and other disciplines include topics in J.1--J.7. Papers on computer communication systems and network protocols (e.g. TCP/IP) are generally a closer fit to the Networking and Internet Architecture (cs.NI) category.
涵盖社会和信息网络的设计、分析和建模，包括它们在联机信息访问、通信和交互方面的应用，以及它们作为数据集在这些领域和其他领域的问题探索中的作用，包括与社会和生物科学的联系。这类网络的分析和建模包括ACM学科类F.2、G.2、G.3、H.2和I.2的主题；计算应用包括H.3、H.4和H.5中的主题；计算和其他学科接口的应用程序包括J.1-J.7中的主题。关于计算机通信系统和网络协议（例如TCP/IP）的论文通常更适合网络和因特网体系结构（CS.NI）类别。
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance        一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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英文摘要：
  A dynamical model is introduced for the formation of a bullish or bearish trends driving an asset price in a given market. Initially, each agent decides to buy or sell according to its personal opinion, which results from the combination of its own private information, the public information and its own analysis. It then adjusts such opinion through the market as it observes sequentially the behavior of a group of random selection of other agents. Its choice is then determined by a local majority rule including itself. Whenever the selected group is at a tie, i.e., it is undecided on what to do, the choice is determined by the local group belief with respect to the anticipated trend at that time. These local adjustments create a dynamic that leads the market price formation. In case of balanced anticipations the market is found to be efficient in being successful to make the "right price" to emerge from the sequential aggregation of all the local individual informations which all together contain the fundamental value. However, when a leading optimistic belief prevails, the same efficient market mechanisms are found to produce a bullish dynamic even though most agents have bearish private informations. The market yields then a wider and wider discrepancy between the fundamental value and the market value, which in turn creates a speculative bubble. Nevertheless, there exists a limit in the growing of the bubble where private opinions take over again and at once invert the trend, originating a sudden bearish trend. Moreover, in the case of a drastic shift in the collective expectations, a huge drop in price levels may also occur extremely fast and puts the market out of control, it is a market crash.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1106.1577