摘要翻译：
即将到来的生物特征搜索侧重于间接指标，以推断其他世界上是否存在生命。然而，除了发出生命存在的信号之外，一些生物信号还可以包含关于一个星球生物圈所达到的状态的信息。这些额外的信息可以用来测量行星的哪些部分达到了某些关键阶段，对应于生命、光合作用、多细胞性和技术文明的到来。我们为即将到来的调查预测了每项测量的不确定性，并概述了决定这些不确定性的关键因素。我们的方法是概率的，依赖于大量的候选者，而不是对单个系外行星光谱的详细检查。讨论了对调查规模的依赖、过渡的可能性和几种置信度的度量，包括讨论生物特征中的地质假阳性以及合并来自不同任务的数据如何影响推断。我们的分析应影响对未来特派团设计和战略的政策建议，以尽量减少测量不确定性的影响。
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英文标题：
《Biosignature Surveys to Exoplanet Yields and Beyond》
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作者：
McCullen Sandora, Joseph Silk
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最新提交年份：
2020
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分类信息：

一级分类：Physics        物理学
二级分类：Earth and Planetary Astrophysics        地球和行星天体物理学
分类描述：Interplanetary medium, planetary physics, planetary astrobiology, extrasolar planets, comets, asteroids, meteorites. Structure and formation of the solar system
行星际介质，行星物理学，行星天体生物学，太阳系外行星，彗星，小行星，陨石。太阳系的结构和形成
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一级分类：Physics        物理学
二级分类：Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics        天体物理学仪器和方法
分类描述：Detector and telescope design, experiment proposals. Laboratory Astrophysics. Methods for data analysis, statistical methods. Software, database design
探测器和望远镜设计，实验建议。实验室天体物理学。资料分析方法，统计方法。软件，数据库设计
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一级分类：Quantitative Biology        数量生物学
二级分类：Other Quantitative Biology        其他定量生物学
分类描述：Work in quantitative biology that does not fit into the other q-bio classifications
不适合其他q-bio分类的定量生物学工作
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英文摘要：
  Upcoming biosignature searches focus on indirect indicators to infer the presence of life on other worlds. Aside from just signaling the presence of life, however, some biosignatures can contain information about the state that a planet's biosphere has achieved. This additional information can be used to measure what fractions of planets achieve certain key stages, corresponding to the advent of life, photosynthesis, multicellularity, and technological civilization. We forecast the uncertainties of each measurement for upcoming surveys, and outline the key factors that determine these uncertainties. Our approach is probabilistic and relies on large numbers of candidates rather than detailed examination of individual exoplanet spectra. The dependence on survey size, likeliness of the transition, and several measures of degrees of confidence are discussed, including discussion of geological false positives in biosignatures as well as how combining data from different missions can affect the inference. Our analysis should influence policy recommendations for future mission design and strategy to minimize the impact of measurement uncertainties.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.04005