摘要翻译：
凶杀案的调查通常依赖于法医昆虫学家对最小死亡时间间隔(PMI$_{min}$)的确定。最发育的昆虫幼虫（主要是吹蝇幼虫）的年龄提供了关于一个人死亡的最短时间的合理可靠的信息。因此，我们建立了一个新的生长模型来计算Textit{Lucilia sericata(Meigen1826)的幼虫年龄。这是基于打击飞行的实际非线性发展，并被设计为包括不确定性，例如犯罪现场的温度值。我们利用已发表的\textit{L.sericata}的发展数据来估计描述每个发展状态与温度相关的行为的非线性函数。对于新模型来说，最重要的是尽可能正确地确定一个发展状态内的进展，因为这会影响PMI估计的准确性高达75%。我们发现，基于一个平均温度值的PMI计算与基于12小时温度分布的PMI计算相差高达65%。在犯罪现场温度的估计上存在2℃的差异，导致PMI计算的偏差为15-30%。
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英文标题：
《A new simulation-based model for calculating post-mortem intervals using
  developmental data for Lucilia sericata (Dipt.: Calliphoridae)》
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作者：
S. Reibe, Ph. von Doetinchem, B. Madea
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最新提交年份：
2010
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Biology        数量生物学
二级分类：Other Quantitative Biology        其他定量生物学
分类描述：Work in quantitative biology that does not fit into the other q-bio classifications
不适合其他q-bio分类的定量生物学工作
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英文摘要：
  Homicide investigations often depend on the determination of a minimum post-mortem interval (PMI$_{min}$) by forensic entomologists. The age of the most developed insect larvae (mostly blow fly larvae) gives reasonably reliable information about the minimum time a person has been dead. Methods such as isomegalen diagrams or ADH calculations can have problems in their reliability, so we established in this study a new growth model to calculate the larval age of \textit{Lucilia sericata} (Meigen 1826). This is based on the actual non-linear development of the blow fly and is designed to include uncertainties, e.g. for temperature values from the crime scene. We used published data for the development of \textit{L. sericata} to estimate non-linear functions describing the temperature dependent behavior of each developmental state. For the new model it is most important to determine the progress within one developmental state as correctly as possible since this affects the accuracy of the PMI estimation by up to 75%. We found that PMI calculations based on one mean temperature value differ by up to 65% from PMIs based on an 12-hourly time temperature profile. Differences of 2\degree C in the estimation of the crime scene temperature result in a deviation in PMI calculation of 15 - 30%.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/0904.0376