摘要翻译：
人类自古以来就对财富的追求着迷，许多成功的结果都得益于运气。但成功受制于复杂性、不确定性和变化--有时会变得越来越不平等。这导致人们在多大程度上真正得到了他们应得的东西（即公平/任人唯贤）这一问题上的紧张和困惑。此外，在许多领域，人类过于自信，普遍将运气与技能混为一谈（我赢了，那是技能；我输了，那是运气不好）。在一些领域，冒险太多；在其他国家，还不够。成功在很大程度上来自运气--尤其是在救助扭曲了激励机制（正面，我赢；反面，你输）的情况下--运气得到了太多的回报。这激励了赌博文化，同时淡化了生产性努力的重要性。而且，短期的成功往往会得到回报，而不考虑长期系统的适应性，而且可能会损害长期系统的适应性。然而，许多成功都是真正的任人唯贤，问题是根据功绩来识别和奖励。我们称之为公平报酬问题。为了解决这一问题，我们提出了三种不同的评估价值的措施：(i)原始结果；(ii)风险调整后的结果，以及(iii)预期结果。我们强调，在许多情况下，演绎前瞻性方法的必要性，这种方法考虑了一个系统在新的未来中适应和变异的潜力。这是在一个演化系统中正式确定的，该系统包括五个过程，除其他外，处理勘探-开采的权衡。通过这些透镜分析了包括金融、政治和科学在内的几项人类努力，并提出了支持繁荣和精英社会的具体解决方案。
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英文标题：
《The fair reward problem: the illusion of success and how to solve it》
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作者：
Didier Sornette, Spencer Wheatley and Peter Cauwels
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最新提交年份：
2019
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分类信息：

一级分类：Economics        经济学
二级分类：General Economics        一般经济学
分类描述：General methodological, applied, and empirical contributions to economics.
对经济学的一般方法、应用和经验贡献。
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一级分类：Physics        物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society        物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：Economics        经济学
分类描述：q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学，包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
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英文摘要：
  Humanity has been fascinated by the pursuit of fortune since time immemorial, and many successful outcomes benefit from strokes of luck. But success is subject to complexity, uncertainty, and change - and at times becoming increasingly unequally distributed. This leads to tension and confusion over to what extent people actually get what they deserve (i.e., fairness/meritocracy). Moreover, in many fields, humans are over-confident and pervasively confuse luck for skill (I win, it's skill; I lose, it's bad luck). In some fields, there is too much risk taking; in others, not enough. Where success derives in large part from luck - and especially where bailouts skew the incentives (heads, I win; tails, you lose) - it follows that luck is rewarded too much. This incentivizes a culture of gambling, while downplaying the importance of productive effort. And, short term success is often rewarded, irrespective, and potentially at the detriment, of the long-term system fitness. However, much success is truly meritocratic, and the problem is to discern and reward based on merit. We call this the fair reward problem. To address this, we propose three different measures to assess merit: (i) raw outcome; (ii) risk adjusted outcome, and (iii) prospective. We emphasize the need, in many cases, for the deductive prospective approach, which considers the potential of a system to adapt and mutate in novel futures. This is formalized within an evolutionary system, comprised of five processes, inter alia handling the exploration-exploitation trade-off. Several human endeavors - including finance, politics, and science -are analyzed through these lenses, and concrete solutions are proposed to support a prosperous and meritocratic society.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1902.04940