摘要翻译：
我们提出了一个简单的模型，其中一个技术领域的创新率取决于它所依赖的技术领域的创新率。利用美国1836年至2017年的专利数据，我们进行了样本外预测，发现当考虑网络效应时，创新率的可预测性可以大大提高。在一项技术的邻近未来创新率已知的情况下，与不考虑网络效应的简单时间序列模型相比，平均可预测性增益为28%$。即使在对未来一无所知的情况下，我们发现正的平均可预测性收益为20$\%$。研究结果具有重要的政策意义，表明对特定技术的有效支持必须考虑到围绕目标技术的技术生态系统。
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英文标题：
《Technological interdependencies predict innovation dynamics》
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作者：
Anton Pichler, Fran\c{c}ois Lafond, J. Doyne Farmer
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最新提交年份：
2020
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分类信息：

一级分类：Physics        物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society        物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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一级分类：Economics        经济学
二级分类：General Economics        一般经济学
分类描述：General methodological, applied, and empirical contributions to economics.
对经济学的一般方法、应用和经验贡献。
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：Economics        经济学
分类描述：q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学，包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
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英文摘要：
  We propose a simple model where the innovation rate of a technological domain depends on the innovation rate of the technological domains it relies on. Using data on US patents from 1836 to 2017, we make out-of-sample predictions and find that the predictability of innovation rates can be boosted substantially when network effects are taken into account. In the case where a technology$'$s neighborhood future innovation rates are known, the average predictability gain is 28$\%$ compared to simpler time series model which do not incorporate network effects. Even when nothing is known about the future, we find positive average predictability gains of 20$\%$. The results have important policy implications, suggesting that the effective support of a given technology must take into account the technological ecosystem surrounding the targeted technology.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.00580