摘要翻译：
面对流行病、城市抗议和负担能力危机，密集城市环境的可取性是否处于转折点？评估城市的长期趋势仍然具有挑战性。本章第一部分描述了2020年住房市场的短期动态。来自价格和价格租金比的证据表明，人们对弹性的预期。拉链水平的证据表明，郊区化的短期趋势，以及城市抗议对房价的一些影响。第二部分分析了1970年至2010年间城市增长的长期动态。它分析了在这种城市增长中，什么是由短期冲击来解释的，而不是教育、产业专业化、产业多样化、城市隔离和住房供应弹性等基本因素。本章的原始结果以及大量已建立的文献表明，基本面是增长的关键驱动力。本章通过两个案例分析说明了这一发现：2001年9月11日后的纽约市住房市场；和1989年洛马普里塔地震后的旧金山湾区。这两个地区在这些冲击后都强劲反弹，显示了都市大都市的韧性。
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英文标题：
《Resilient Urban Housing Markets: Shocks vs. Fundamentals》
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作者：
Amine Ouazad
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最新提交年份：
2020
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分类信息：

一级分类：Economics        经济学
二级分类：General Economics        一般经济学
分类描述：General methodological, applied, and empirical contributions to economics.
对经济学的一般方法、应用和经验贡献。
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一级分类：Physics        物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society        物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：Economics        经济学
分类描述：q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学，包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
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英文摘要：
  In the face of a pandemic, urban protests, and an affordability crisis, is the desirability of dense urban settings at a turning point? Assessing cities' long term trends remains challenging. The first part of this chapter describes the short-run dynamics of the housing market in 2020. Evidence from prices and price-to-rent ratios suggests expectations of resilience. Zip-level evidence suggests a short-run trend towards suburbanization, and some impacts of urban protests on house prices. The second part of the chapter analyzes the long-run dynamics of urban growth between 1970 and 2010. It analyzes what, in such urban growth, is explained by short-run shocks as opposed to fundamentals such as education, industrial specialization, industrial diversification, urban segregation, and housing supply elasticity. This chapter's original results as well as a large established body of literature suggest that fundamentals are the key drivers of growth. The chapter illustrates this finding with two case studies: the New York City housing market after September 11, 2001; and the San Francisco Bay Area in the aftermath of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. Both areas rebounded strongly after these shocks, suggesting the resilience of the urban metropolis.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2010.00413