摘要翻译：
使用一个简单的经济模型，在这个模型中，社交距离减少了传染病，我们研究了免疫力下降对流行病学动态和社会活动的影响。如果免疫力减弱，我们发现新冠肺炎可能会成为地方病，在发现疫苗或治疗方法之前，社交距离将会持续。但是免疫力的减弱并不一定会改变流行病爆发时的最佳行动。分散平衡实际上与免疫力下降无关，直到接近感染高峰。对于集中均衡，免疫力下降的相关性降低了找到疫苗或治疗的概率、感染成本（例如感染致死率）和其他降低传染的非传染性疾病的存在（例如隔离和口罩使用）。在校准到2020年7月的模拟中，我们的模型表明，至少在2021年之前，免疫力的减弱对集中均衡几乎不重要。这为个人和政策制定者提供了重要的时间，在新型冠状病毒变得至关重要之前了解对它的免疫力。
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英文标题：
《COVID-19: What If Immunity Wanes?》
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作者：
M. Alper \c{C}enesiz and Lu\'is Guimar\~aes
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最新提交年份：
2020
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分类信息：

一级分类：Economics        经济学
二级分类：General Economics        一般经济学
分类描述：General methodological, applied, and empirical contributions to economics.
对经济学的一般方法、应用和经验贡献。
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一级分类：Physics        物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society        物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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一级分类：Quantitative Biology        数量生物学
二级分类：Populations and Evolution        种群与进化
分类描述：Population dynamics, spatio-temporal and epidemiological models, dynamic speciation, co-evolution, biodiversity, foodwebs, aging; molecular evolution and phylogeny; directed evolution; origin of life
种群动力学；时空和流行病学模型；动态物种形成；协同进化；生物多样性；食物网；老龄化；分子进化和系统发育；定向进化；生命起源
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：Economics        经济学
分类描述：q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学，包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
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英文摘要：
  Using a simple economic model in which social-distancing reduces contagion, we study the implications of waning immunity for the epidemiological dynamics and social activity. If immunity wanes, we find that COVID-19 likely becomes endemic and that social-distancing is here to stay until the discovery of a vaccine or cure. But waning immunity does not necessarily change optimal actions on the onset of the pandemic. Decentralized equilibria are virtually independent of waning immunity until close to peak infections. For centralized equilibria, the relevance of waning immunity decreases in the probability of finding a vaccine or cure, the costs of infection (e.g., infection-fatality rate), and the presence of other NPIs that lower contagion (e.g., quarantining and mask use). In simulations calibrated to July 2020, our model suggests that waning immunity is virtually unimportant for centralized equilibria until at least 2021. This provides vital time for individuals and policymakers to learn about immunity against SARS-CoV-2 before it becomes critical.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2008.03283