Demand very strong; we see tight supplies through year-end
Major overseas solar-cell related firms finished releasing results last week.
Trina Solar, Yingli Green Energy, and Suntech Power have firmed up
orders for the full year, and they expected pricing to remain basically flat
year-on-year (wafers and solar cell-use silicon are expected to see similar
trends). While most firms stated that the outlook for the Oct.-Dec. quarter
was unclear, we believe visibility is improving. (1) We do not expect
German demand to fall significantly once the FIT program is revised in
July. (2) Demand in the US and the rest of Europe, where solar cell ROI is
high, remains above expectations. (3) With European and Japanese makers
increasingly using Asian makers for OEM production, real industry
production capacity in Japan is not expanding.