摘要翻译：
本文评估了美国各州采取的各种政策对新冠肺炎确诊病例和死亡增长率的动态影响，以及谷歌移动报告测量的社交距离行为，其中我们考虑了人们对传播风险新信息的自愿行为反应。我们的分析发现，关于传播风险的政策和信息都是新冠肺炎病例和死亡的重要决定因素，并表明政策的变化解释了观察到的社交距离行为的很大一部分变化。我们的反事实实验表明，4月1日全国强制员工戴口罩本可以将4月下旬的病例和死亡增长率降低10个百分点以上，并可能导致到5月底全国死亡人数减少17%至55%，这大约相当于挽救了17至5.5万人的生命。我们的估计表明，到5月底，取消非必要的企业关闭（同时保持学校关闭、电影院和餐馆限制）可能会导致病例和死亡增加-20%至60%。我们还发现，如果没有家庭订单，病例会增加25%至170%，这意味着如果家庭订单没有实施，可能会有0.5至340万美国人被感染。最后，由于没有实施任何政策，到5月底，美国的病例（和死亡）可能会增加至少7倍，但上限不明确，学校关闭的影响相当不确定，跨部门差异很小。
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英文标题：
《Causal Impact of Masks, Policies, Behavior on Early Covid-19 Pandemic in
  the U.S》
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作者：
Victor Chernozhukov, Hiroyuki Kasaha, Paul Schrimpf
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最新提交年份：
2020
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分类信息：

一级分类：Economics        经济学
二级分类：Econometrics        计量经济学
分类描述：Econometric Theory, Micro-Econometrics, Macro-Econometrics, Empirical Content of Economic Relations discovered via New Methods, Methodological Aspects of the Application of Statistical Inference to Economic Data.
计量经济学理论，微观计量经济学，宏观计量经济学，通过新方法发现的经济关系的实证内容，统计推论应用于经济数据的方法论方面。
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一级分类：Statistics        统计学
二级分类：Applications        应用程序
分类描述：Biology, Education, Epidemiology, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Medical, Physical Sciences, Quality Control, Social Sciences
生物学，教育学，流行病学，工程学，环境科学，医学，物理科学，质量控制，社会科学
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英文摘要：
  This paper evaluates the dynamic impact of various policies adopted by US states on the growth rates of confirmed Covid-19 cases and deaths as well as social distancing behavior measured by Google Mobility Reports, where we take into consideration people's voluntarily behavioral response to new information of transmission risks. Our analysis finds that both policies and information on transmission risks are important determinants of Covid-19 cases and deaths and shows that a change in policies explains a large fraction of observed changes in social distancing behavior. Our counterfactual experiments suggest that nationally mandating face masks for employees on April 1st could have reduced the growth rate of cases and deaths by more than 10 percentage points in late April, and could have led to as much as 17 to 55 percent less deaths nationally by the end of May, which roughly translates into 17 to 55 thousand saved lives. Our estimates imply that removing non-essential business closures (while maintaining school closures, restrictions on movie theaters and restaurants) could have led to -20 to 60 percent more cases and deaths by the end of May. We also find that, without stay-at-home orders, cases would have been larger by 25 to 170 percent, which implies that 0.5 to 3.4 million more Americans could have been infected if stay-at-home orders had not been implemented. Finally, not having implemented any policies could have led to at least a 7 fold increase with an uninformative upper bound in cases (and deaths) by the end of May in the US, with considerable uncertainty over the effects of school closures, which had little cross-sectional variation.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14168