大家好，小白求救
目前学了AR, MA, ARMA, ARCH, GARCH, VAR, SVAR, VECM, BL, RESET, TAR, LASTAR, ESTAR 之类的模型
只有7个变量可选择
1. log equity price index
2. expected inflation (%)
3. GDP growth (% year over year)
4. CPI inflation (% year over year)
5. long-term government bond yield (%)
6. log real effective exchange rate
7. short-term government bond yield (%)
题目是根据经济理论和这7个变量的数据，对实际利率建模 (estimate a model of real interest rate)

想问问用哪个模型建模比较好呀？
因为变量中并没有直接给出实际利率，我可以用long-term government bond来代作real interest rate吗