摘要翻译：
动态治疗方案是为异质性个体量身定制的治疗分配。最优动态待遇制度是反事实福利最大化的制度。我们引入了一个框架，在这个框架中，我们可以从观测数据中部分地学习最优动态机制，放松了文献中通常使用的顺序随机化假设，而是使用（二进制）工具变量。我们提出了关于动态制度的反事实福利的尖锐偏序的概念，并通过一组线性规划建立了从数据到偏序的映射。然后，我们将所识别的最优区域集刻画为与偏序相关的极大元集。我们将偏序的概念与使用拓扑排序的更传统的偏辨识概念联系起来。实际上，拓扑排序可以作为政策制定者的政策基准。我们应用我们的方法，通过组合来自多个来源的数据，将学校教育和学校后培训的回报理解为一个处理序列。本文的框架可用于目前的背景之外，例如，在不同的反事实情景下建立多种治疗或政策的排名。
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英文标题：
《Optimal Dynamic Treatment Regimes and Partial Welfare Ordering》
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作者：
Sukjin Han
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最新提交年份：
2021
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分类信息：

一级分类：Economics        经济学
二级分类：Econometrics        计量经济学
分类描述：Econometric Theory, Micro-Econometrics, Macro-Econometrics, Empirical Content of Economic Relations discovered via New Methods, Methodological Aspects of the Application of Statistical Inference to Economic Data.
计量经济学理论，微观计量经济学，宏观计量经济学，通过新方法发现的经济关系的实证内容，统计推论应用于经济数据的方法论方面。
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英文摘要：
  Dynamic treatment regimes are treatment allocations tailored to heterogeneous individuals. The optimal dynamic treatment regime is a regime that maximizes counterfactual welfare. We introduce a framework in which we can partially learn the optimal dynamic regime from observational data, relaxing the sequential randomization assumption commonly employed in the literature but instead using (binary) instrumental variables. We propose the notion of sharp partial ordering of counterfactual welfares with respect to dynamic regimes and establish mapping from data to partial ordering via a set of linear programs. We then characterize the identified set of the optimal regime as the set of maximal elements associated with the partial ordering. We relate the notion of partial ordering with a more conventional notion of partial identification using topological sorts. Practically, topological sorts can be served as a policy benchmark for a policymaker. We apply our method to understand returns to schooling and post-school training as a sequence of treatments by combining data from multiple sources. The framework of this paper can be used beyond the current context, e.g., in establishing rankings of multiple treatments or policies across different counterfactual scenarios.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1912.10014