摘要翻译:
学者、媒体和政治家都在寻求理解英国在2016年6月的公投中退出欧盟的决定。随着关于未来关系将会是什么样子的辩论愈演愈烈,公投被赋予了新的重要性,作为任何前瞻性计划可能成功与否的指标。拓扑
数据分析提供了一种从英国退出欧盟投票中收集的复杂多维数据集中忠实地提取最大信息的能力。在复杂的情况下,对休假的支持来自于比保留人口更相似的人口。对左翼活动家来说,从这一简明的集合中获得选票比仍然动员不同团体反对英国退出欧盟的任务更简单。广泛的模式与现存的经验工作一致,但TDA球映射器的力量意味着提供了证据来丰富关于固定不变的叙述,以及被欧盟成员国“甩在后面”的叙述,这是以前找不到的。一份详细的理解浮出水面,它有力地评论了英国为什么像现在这样投票。给出了政策制定必须遵循的出发点。
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英文标题:
《An Economic Topology of the Brexit vote》
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作者:
Pawel Dlotko, Simon Rudkin, Wanling Qiu
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最新提交年份:
2019
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分类信息:
一级分类:Economics 经济学
二级分类:Econometrics 计量经济学
分类描述:Econometric Theory, Micro-Econometrics, Macro-Econometrics, Empirical Content of Economic Relations discovered via New Methods, Methodological Aspects of the Application of Statistical Inference to Economic Data.
计量经济学理论,微观计量经济学,宏观计量经济学,通过新方法发现的经济关系的实证内容,统计推论应用于经济数据的方法论方面。
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英文摘要:
A quest to understand the decision of the UK to leave the European Union, Brexit, in the referendum of June 2016 has occupied academics, the media and politicians alike. As the debate about what the future relationship will look like rages, the referendum is given renewed importance as an indicator of the likely success, or otherwise, of any forward plans. Topological data analysis offers an ability to faithfully extract maximal information from complex multi-dimensional datasets of the type that have been gathered on Brexit voting. Within the complexity it is shown that support for Leave drew from a far more similar demographic than Remain. Obtaining votes from this concise set was more straightforward for Leave campaigners than was Remain's task of mobilising a diverse group to oppose Brexit. Broad patterns are consistent with extant empirical work, but the strength of TDA Ball Mapper means that evidence is offered to enrich the narrative on immobility, and being ``left-behind'' by EU membership, that could not be found before. A detailed understanding emerges which comments robustly on why Britain voted as it did. A start point for the policy development that must follow is given.
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PDF链接:
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1909.03490