摘要翻译：
我们建议发展一个预测市场，用于预测将从爱尔兰银行转移到国家资产管理局(NAMA)的“有毒资产”的价格。这样的市场允许市场参与者承担一种证券的股份，这种证券的价值与未来的事件挂钩。我们建议，证券的价值取决于从NAMA到银行的贷款转移金额。实质上是接受对价格高于或低于某一报价数字的下注。证券的价格代表有毒资产的转让价格，根据市场意见增加或减少。预测市场提供了一种经过验证的手段，可以以可扩展和透明的方式将与公平市场价值有关的分布式知识聚合起来。它们是激励相容的（即诱导真实的报告），并对战略操纵具有稳健性。我们建议一个预测市场与欧盟委员会建议的定价程序并行运行。这个程序不必在所有情况下都注意预测市场的观点，但它可以提供指导和异常检测的手段。在线预测市场将为每个人提供一个以公开透明的方式“发表自己意见”的机会。
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英文标题：
《A Prediction Market for Toxic Assets Prices》
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作者：
Alan Holland
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最新提交年份：
2009
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance        一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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英文摘要：
  We propose the development of a prediction market for forecasting prices for "toxic assets" to be transferred from Irish banks to the National Asset Management Agency (NAMA). Such a market allows market participants to assume a stake in a security whose value is tied to a future event. We propose that securities are created whose value hinges on the transfer amount paid for loans from NAMA to a bank. In essence, bets are accepted on whether the price is higher or lower than a certain quoted figure. The prices of the securities represent transfer prices for toxic assets increases or decreases in line with market opinion. Prediction markets offer a proven means of aggregating distributed knowledge pertaining to fair market values in a scalable and transparent manner. They are incentive compatible (i.e. induce truthful reporting) and robust to strategic manipulation. We propose that a prediction market is run in parallel with the pricing procedure recommended by the European Commission. This procedure need not necessarily take heed of the prediction markets view in all cases but it may offer guidance and a means of anomaly detection. An online prediction market would offer everybody an opportunity to "have their say" in an open and transparent manner.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/0905.4171