摘要翻译：
成本效益分析制定了项目管理的神圣三位一体目标--成本、进度和效益。正如我们以前的研究所表明的，信息和通信技术项目在10个案例中有8个案例偏离其最初的费用估计数10%以上。学术研究认为，乐观偏见和黑天鹅盲目导致预测低于实际成本。首先，乐观偏见与欺骗和妄想的影响有关，欺骗和妄想是由在决策时采取内部观点和忽视分布信息造成的。其次，我们之前讨论过黑天鹅盲目性会使决策者忽略外部事件，即使决策和判断是基于外部视角。以1471个ICT项目为样本，总价值为2410亿美元--我们回答了这样一个问题：我们能展示正常绩效、妄想和欺骗的不同影响吗？我们计算了（实际-预报）/预报的累积分布函数(CDF)。我们的结果表明CDF在两个临界点上发生变化--第一个临界点将指数函数转化为高斯钟形曲线。第二个临界点将钟形曲线转化为幂次为2的幂律分布。我们认为，这些结果表明，在第一个临界点之前的项目绩效是出于政治动机，而在第二个临界点以上的项目绩效表明，项目经理和决策者被随机异常值所愚弄，因为他们对厚尾视而不见。然后，我们表明黑天鹅ICT项目是一个组织不确定性的重要来源，管理层需要意识到这一点。
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英文标题：
《Double Whammy - How ICT Projects are Fooled by Randomness and Screwed by
  Political Intent》
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作者：
Alexander Budzier and Bent Flyvbjerg
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最新提交年份：
2013
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance        一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：Portfolio Management        项目组合管理
分类描述：Security selection and optimization, capital allocation, investment strategies and performance measurement
证券选择与优化、资本配置、投资策略与绩效评价
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英文摘要：
  The cost-benefit analysis formulates the holy trinity of objectives of project management - cost, schedule, and benefits. As our previous research has shown, ICT projects deviate from their initial cost estimate by more than 10% in 8 out of 10 cases. Academic research has argued that Optimism Bias and Black Swan Blindness cause forecasts to fall short of actual costs. Firstly, optimism bias has been linked to effects of deception and delusion, which is caused by taking the inside-view and ignoring distributional information when making decisions. Secondly, we argued before that Black Swan Blindness makes decision-makers ignore outlying events even if decisions and judgements are based on the outside view. Using a sample of 1,471 ICT projects with a total value of USD 241 billion - we answer the question: Can we show the different effects of Normal Performance, Delusion, and Deception? We calculated the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of (actual-forecast)/forecast. Our results show that the CDF changes at two tipping points - the first one transforms an exponential function into a Gaussian bell curve. The second tipping point transforms the bell curve into a power law distribution with the power of 2. We argue that these results show that project performance up to the first tipping point is politically motivated and project performance above the second tipping point indicates that project managers and decision-makers are fooled by random outliers, because they are blind to thick tails. We then show that Black Swan ICT projects are a significant source of uncertainty to an organisation and that management needs to be aware of.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1304.4590