摘要翻译：
最近的研究得出结论，全球冠状病毒(COVID-19)疫情减少了全球和美国电力部门的二氧化碳排放。在本文中，我们分析了2020年3月至12月美国电力部门CO2减排的统计意义。我们使用高斯过程(GP)回归来评估在没有新冠肺炎的情况下，二氧化碳减排是否会以合理的概率发生，考虑到与疫情无关的因素带来的不确定性，并根据天气、季节性和最近的排放趋势进行调整。我们发现，考虑5%显著性水平的假设检验，每月CO2排放量减少仅在2020年4月和5月具有统计显著性。另外，我们考虑了新冠肺炎对2022年燃煤电厂退休的潜在影响。我们发现，由于可能与新冠肺炎相关的电力需求和价格持续下降，只有一小部分美国煤炭发电厂面临退休风险。我们观察到并预计美国电力部门的二氧化碳排放量将恢复到新冠肺炎之前。
---
英文标题：
《No COVID-19 Climate Silver Lining in the US Power Sector》
---
作者：
Max Luke, Priyanshi Somani, Turner Cotterman, Dhruv Suri, Stephen J.
  Lee
---
最新提交年份：
2021
---
分类信息：

一级分类：Economics        经济学
二级分类：General Economics        一般经济学
分类描述：General methodological, applied, and empirical contributions to economics.
对经济学的一般方法、应用和经验贡献。
--
一级分类：Physics        物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society        物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
--
一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：Economics        经济学
分类描述：q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学，包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
--
一级分类：Statistics        统计学
二级分类：Applications        应用程序
分类描述：Biology, Education, Epidemiology, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Medical, Physical Sciences, Quality Control, Social Sciences
生物学，教育学，流行病学，工程学，环境科学，医学，物理科学，质量控制，社会科学
--

---
英文摘要：
  Recent studies conclude that the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic decreased power sector CO$_2$ emissions globally and in the United States. In this paper, we analyze the statistical significance of CO2 emissions reductions in the U.S. power sector from March through December 2020. We use Gaussian process (GP) regression to assess whether CO2 emissions reductions would have occurred with reasonable probability in the absence of COVID-19 considering uncertainty due to factors unrelated to the pandemic and adjusting for weather, seasonality, and recent emissions trends. We find that monthly CO2 emissions reductions are only statistically significant in April and May 2020 considering hypothesis tests at 5% significance levels. Separately, we consider the potential impact of COVID-19 on coal-fired power plant retirements through 2022. We find that only a small percentage of U.S. coal power plants are at risk of retirement due to a possible COVID-19-related sustained reduction in electricity demand and prices. We observe and anticipate a return to pre-COVID-19 CO2 emissions in the U.S. power sector.
---
PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2008.06660