摘要翻译：
提出了一个考虑耐用品市场演化的分析模型。模型表明，引入商品后，商品的扩散总是按照低音扩散的方式进行。然而，在这一阶段之后，耐用消费品的扩散过程将由变异-选择-再生产机制控制，其增长动力学可以用复制子方程来描述。将总销售额描述为第一次购买、多次购买和替换购买的总和，可以导出产品的生命周期。置换购买导致由商品的有限寿命所决定的销售的周期性变化（朱格拉周期）。该模型表明，Bass-Gompertz和Gompertz扩散都可能有助于消费者耐用品的产品生命周期。该理论包含了作为特例的市场的标准均衡观。这取决于时间尺度，一个均衡或进化的描述是否更合适。演化框架还被用来推导制造业务单元的规模、增长率和价格分布。预测业务单元（产品）的规模分布为对数正态分布，而增长率呈拉普拉斯分布。价格与平均价格的大偏差也受拉普拉斯分布（肥尾）的控制。这些结果与实证结果是一致的。通过对耐用消费品的时间演化与实证研究的明确比较，证实了价格下降与Gompertz扩散之间的密切关系，而产品的生命周期可以定性地描述为较长的时间周期。
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英文标题：
《Evolutionary Model of a Anonymous Consumer Durable Market》
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作者：
Joachim Kaldasch
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最新提交年份：
2013
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance        一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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一级分类：Physics        物理学
二级分类：Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems        自适应和自组织系统
分类描述：Adaptation, self-organizing systems, statistical physics, fluctuating systems, stochastic processes, interacting particle systems, machine learning
自适应，自组织系统，统计物理，波动系统，随机过程，相互作用粒子系统，机器学习
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一级分类：Statistics        统计学
二级分类：Other Statistics        其他统计数字
分类描述：Work in statistics that does not fit into the other stat classifications
从事不适合其他统计分类的统计工作
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英文摘要：
  An analytic model is presented that considers the evolution of a market of durable goods. The model suggests that after introduction goods spread always according to a Bass diffusion. However, this phase will be followed by a diffusion process for durable consumer goods governed by a variation-selection-reproduction mechanism and the growth dynamics can be described by a replicator equation. Describing the aggregate sales as the sum of first, multiple and replacement purchase the product life cycle can be derived. Replacement purchase causes periodic variations of the sales determined by the finite lifetime of the good (Juglar cycles). The model suggests that both, Bass- and Gompertz diffusion may contribute to the product life cycle of a consumer durable. The theory contains the standard equilibrium view of a market as a special case. It depends on the time scale, whether an equilibrium or evolutionary description is more appropriate. The evolutionary framework is used to derive also the size, growth rate and price distribution of manufacturing business units. It predicts that the size distribution of the business units (products) is lognormal, while the growth rates exhibit a Laplace distribution. Large price deviations from the mean price are also governed by a Laplace distribution (fat tails). These results are in agreement with empirical findings. The explicit comparison of the time evolution of consumer durables with empirical investigations confirms the close relationship between price decline and Gompertz diffusion, while the product life cycle can be described qualitatively for a long time period.
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